HURRICANE IDA continues to intensify this afternoon and I suspect that when hurricane hunters find Ida around 1pm we will find a Category 2 Hurricane, with the central pressure around 975mb and winds near 100mph.

UPDATE:  Hurricane Hunters did find Ida with the above strength…

This will mark the peak intensity of Ida, Ida will now slowly increase in size, but weaken in terms of maximum winds.

WATER TEMPS barely support tropical storm intensity after tomorrow morning, see image below.  This represents the amount of available Heat Energy.  Yes, Tropical Cyclones can exist and even intensify with low Heat Content, rarely do the hold maximum winds greater than 75mph.

Earlier this year Hurricane Grace, near Ireland showed we can indeed have hurricanes over cool waters, but her winds may have never been higher than 60mph.

After she moves into the Central Gulf, this will be the case with Ida.

IMPACT ON JACKSONVILLE – Think Nor’easter

Except we will be on the Warm, Moist, not necessarily wet side of the storm.  Rains will be “around” starting on Tuesday.  Highest chance of rain will be west and north of Jacksonville.  This includes Waycross to Live Oak.  Maximum rain amounts, I suspect, will be under 2″.

JUST GOT BACK FROM BALTIMORE, I know the Jags are in town, but I am going to watch the Blue Angels this afternoon.

I will update IDA tomorrow morning.

JG

WOW!  AMAZING INDEED, BUT…  Read the important message at the bottom of the blog…

Click on image to enlarge... Unknown Photographer...

Click on image to enlarge... Unknown Photographer...

Click on image to enlarge... Unknown Photographer...

Click on image to enlarge... Unknown Photographer...

Click on image to enlarge... Unknown Photographer...

Click on image to enlarge... Unknown Photographer...

All but this one, above, appear to be typical Mid-West thunderstorms.  The one above may have been from Katrina, but from Mississippi, associated with the storm surge that pushed in, but unless the photographer who took this steps forward I may never know…

NOW THE REASON I SHOW THESE, other than they are really cool looking, and they are, is that they were attached to one of the many e-mails I get throughout the year regarding HURRICANE KATRINA.  Well, I can tell you emphatically all, except possibly the last one, were not taken during any point of Katrina, before, during or after…

Just another internet hoax…

MEANWHILE  OVER MOSCOW, RUSSIA, “O” IS FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA?  This amazing cloud formation floated overhead, see below…

Click on image to learn more...

My guess is that the atmosphere near the center of the “O” was super-cooled and an aircraft just happen to loop through the region triggering rapid condensation, which can lead to sinking air, which in turn, warms the air and thereby, dry the air, leaving an “O” in the sky…  Of course, it could have been an action by the CIA to intimidate the Russians by putting an “O” for Obama in the sky!  Ahhh….  Probably not…

I have also seen this look in the wake of Silver Iodine or Dry Ice testing to “seed” clouds for rain.  The Chinese and Russians have been known to be doing this for decades.  Here’s an image…

Click image to learn more...

JG

AS YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED, WE HAVE BEEN CHANGING OUR NEWS “LOOK”… And these changes are moving into the weather department as well…  Been working very hard on these changes and I will be looking for any and all, for better or worse,  comments when we debut them at the end of the month.

In the meantime, changes came to JAX today, an expected cool front, unexpectedly moved further south and the result…  A 20 degree drop in afternoon high temps!

JIA, yesterday… 93

JIA, today… 74

But just south of town…  92 in Ocala!

Click to enlarge image....

I will talk-up the blog once all of our new weather graphics are on-air… About 2 weeks from now!

JG

11AM UPDATE: GRACE NEVER TO BE HURRICANE…  NHC SAY’S SO…

HUH?!?!

30 years ago this little tiny tropical looking feature would have been totally overlooked, but with today’s satellite technology even something as small as Grace will be seen, especially when the feature sports an “eye”.  Grace is barely 100 miles across and will likely dissipate quickly in the next 24 hours, I am sure it is going to be quite the headline in some of the more Man-made Global Warming-sided newspapers there in Europe…

Anyway, I saw this yesterday and thought the NHC would ignore it, but here we are with a Tropical Storm, that maybe upgraded at 11AM to Hurricane Grace.

Click image to enlarge...

And here’s the Satellite loop showing the “eye” forming…

Click on image to go to the web site so that you can get the loop... Here's an additional tip... After you go to the site, right mouse button and zoom-in to see the tiny Grace better...

GRACE REMINDS ME OF HURRICANE VINCE (2005)

Which blew into Southern Portugal.

Click on image to enlarge...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Vince_(2005)

Meanwhile, there appear to be another area to watch in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, yet given this el Nino year, it is highly unlikely it will make it to the U.S.

JG

Click to go to the Old Farmers Almanac

THE OLD FARMERS ALMANAC IS FORECASTING A VERY COLD WINTER UP NORTH…

Locally, for the Southeast U.S., the pattern should be wet, yet milder than normal.  Now, usually I roll my eyes to the Old Farmers Almanac forecasts, but only to the degree of their attempt to be too specific.  In other words, when they say “from January 1st to the 4th, Snow, High Winds…”.  They’re being too specific.  It would be far better if they suggested that January will start off  cold with the possibility of big snow event.  Anyway, even that is considered way beyond what can be scientifically backed-up…

Here’s another forecast example:  For Jacksonville, right now, Sep 28-30: Rain, cool.  Well, it is cooler than normal, yet we are bone dry…

FORECAST FOR THIS WINTER / NEXT HURRICANE SEASON

Many people still like to “believe” in their forecasts.  For 2010, they are forecasting two big events:  A frigid Winter for Northern folks and a major Hurricane for Florida.  “…Watch for a major hurricane in late August or early September…“

Major Hurricane article

http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hurricanes/old-farmers-almanac-predicts-hurricane-for-florida-next-year/1035056

It’s always fun to watch their forecasts, I will keep this forecast in mind for the future…

JG

JUST AN AMAZING VIEW…

The ISS was 255 miles away (at its closest), it costs $100 Billion, it has the dimensions of a football field and all of the light (why you can see it) comes from the sun…

For those of you who caught it at the very beginning of its crossing over our skies, saw a beautiful reflection of the twin solar panels that gave us the appearance of a huge headlight in the sky!  It was far brighter than expected at this point, by the time it passed the Moon and the bright start next to it (actually the planet Jupiter) it was about the same brightness as Jupiter!  Very spectacular!

The video below shows the ISS passing next to Jupiter and the Moon, it then shows our Moon (Full Moon is this Saturday Night) and it also shows a very tight shot of the planet Jupiter.  If you look very closely you can actually see Jupiter’s moons right next to Jupiter and I mean right next to Jupiter, little dots…

And although the ISS appears dim in the clip, for reference, look outside (at night) the ISS was as bright as the “star” next to the Moon.  The “star” is actually the planet Jupiter.

BTW, this video clip will shot by Matt James (Thanks Matt!) and it will take a few moments to load…

Click Image to see the ISS pass by Jupiter...

Also, it is almost impossible to see on this video, but with a small telescope or decent pair of field binoculars you can see Jupiter’s moons.  Jupiter is the bright star next to the moon the next two nights.

Jupiter appears as a blur, within the blur are Jupiter's moons...

Tomorrow we’ll take a look at the possibilities of Major Hurricane hitting the Florida Coastline next year, at least as forecasted by one source…

JG

This will be 6 times brighter than the passage I mentioned about a month ago…  Click here to go back and read that blog…  Here are the simple details:

• The ISS will appear as an airplane would, moving across the sky with a single light (yellow-white)
• At 7:57 pm it will appear in the Northwest skies and be travelling towards dead center overhead…
• at 8:02 pm the ISS will be right over head and appear as a VERY BRIGHT star moving towards the Southeast.
• at 8:06pm will be gone!  So, if you look out after this…  You will have to wait until next month for another amazing sighting of the $100 Billion space station.

Go here for more information…

ISS as bright as Venus tonight!!! Overhead at 8:02:20. Click on image to get more information..

THIS WEEK’S BLOGS WILL COVER…

• COOLEST NIGHT SINCE APRIL…
• DRY WEATHER NOW… WEEKEND… not-so…
• MAJOR HURRICANE FOR FLORIDA???
• COLDEST WINTER IN DECADES???

JG

EL NINO DOES REDUCE THE NUMBER OF HURRICANES IN THE ATLANTIC…

But, it also cause extreme drying and excessive heating in Australia.  The results can be rather dramatic…

Click image to go to the web site...

Click on image to go to web site...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1215443/Australia-dust-storm-sweeps-eastern-coast.html

JG

FRED’S LEFTOVERS WILL MOVE PAST US TOMORROW…

And we continue to see bursting of heavy rains and storms from Fred’s leftovers during some point of the day, unusually today’s occurred during the afternoon.  So tonight, into tomorrow (Wednesday), we wait to see if additional bursting develops…  If it happens, expect 1-2″ of rain over a short period of time…

Maybe we’ll see one of these…

Click on image to enlarge... Thanks Mike!

ATLANTA RAINFALL…

Click on image to enlarge...

JG

THIS EL NINO YEAR… WE HAVE SEEN THIS ALL TOO OFTEN…

With Fred, we have seen explosive thunderstorms develop at night and every afternoon we see them fade away.  You can see on this late afternoon visible satellite image showing that the storms have again faded exposing Fred’s low-level circulation center…

Click image to enlarge...

And the pattern continues…  At night, the storms return, the yellow area are storms forming right now (10pm Monday Night).

Click image to enlarge...

If this wasn’t an el Nino season (it is) we would need to be concerned that the explosive thunderstorm activity will allow for thunderstorms to redevelop the low-level circulation center.

I do have my concerns as looking at the intense thunderstorm this evening, I estimate that up to 4″ of rain is falling in the worst of these storms.  Furthermore, this whole area is drifting off to the west and in about 36 hours (Wednesday Morning) Fred’s leftovers will be right along the coast of Georgia, which means there will be the potential for late night / early morning downpours for some of us AND they will be very tough to forecast…  Stay tuned for the possibility of heavy coastal rains on Wednesday morning.

LOCAL SURF WATER TEMPS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE BEEN THIS SUMMER!  RIGHT NOW!

This should seem strange to you and it is…  This summer we had westerly winds that caused cold water to be up-welled along the beaches, leaving surf water temps only in the mid to upper 70’s.  But, not anymore!  Water temps are well into the low 80’s!  Very nice! 

Click image to enlarge...

Of course, these very warm water temps could help to fuel heavy coastal rains, IF they develop…

TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH TOO!

Click image to enlarge...

FIRST DAY OF FALL IS TUESDAY (TODAY) AT 5:18PM

JG