Must be Global Warming!

Maybe/Maybe Not… The reality is, Greenhouse Gases have dramatically increased since 1978 and yet were are just barely cracking new record highs.   Just another piece of evidence that suggests that the impact of increasing Global Warming Gases may not impact Global Temperatures as much as first suspected…

http://antarcticsun.usap.gov/features/contenthandler.cfm?id=2563

This weekend: 

• Mini- Nor’easter as low pressure rolls off the South Carolina coast and High Pressure builds our winds and chances of showers by Monday…  Chilly – Breezy this weekend!
• Buddy Walk, Alzheimer Walk, Lincolnville Heritage Fest, San Juan Del Rio 5th annual Fall Festival, The Jacksonville Fair!  And the BLUE ANGELS!
• Fall Back with our clocks!

Plus, Check these articles out…

Biggest jump ever seen in Global Warming gases…

Oh, BTW, warning these are sterotypically slanted articles as they fail to mention that they are only talking about the increase in CO2 production, NOT the net CO2 change, which the writers and interviewed scientists failed to disclose…

Then they take this input increase and apply this to what would be a worst case scenario in NET CO2 increase, totally different…  Just saying, it appears very much a hyped story…

This chart actually shows the rate of change DECLINE going on when it comes to CO2 increases.  It took only 20 years (1950 to 1970) to double the yearly output of CO2, the next doubling (1970 to 2002) took 32 years.  In other words, we are quickly becoming more efficient in creating energy without increasing CO2 growth…

There was this…

A Crack in the Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf

Maybe we shouldn’t have been using DYNAMITE along the Pine Island Glacier ?!? 

From WIKI:  Apparently scientists have been using dynamite along the glacier…

A team from the British Antarctic Survey arrived at the ice stream on 8 December 2006 for the first of two field seasons. In the second field season, they spent three months there from November 2007 to February 2008. Work on the glacier included radar measurements and seismic surveys.^[7]

Just Kidding…

Finally, the International Space Station will be flying overhead!

Look almost straight overhead on Sunday Night at 6:25PM, a bright white light will pass from the Northwest to the Northeast…

We will be TESTING 135 year record low temperatures Sunday and Monday Morning!  The records are 43 (Sunday Morning) and 45 (Monday Morning).  The Forecast?  Both nights will drop to 47!!  Beaches will be closer to 55-60, much milder, yet as cool as they have seen since April!

I suspect that you won’t notice the chill so much Sunday Morning, as you will when you head out to work & school on Monday morning,  why?  You will sleep through most of the really cold air Sunday, but not when heading back to work/school on Monday morning!

NEON BLUE / RED TIDE Check this out!

Click on image to go to the CNN website for more info...

Also go here…   www.Davidhatfieldphotography.com

OPHELIA is going to reach out and just touch Bermuda!  Watch her slide by this weekend on radar…

Click on image to see the latest loop!

Stay warm and have a safe weekend!  Go Jags!

UPDATE (10:00PM EDT):  UARS still BARELY hanging in there…  Only if UARS is able to remain aloft to the very latest forecast orbit (3:00 am EDT) would there be any possibility of Jax seeing it…  It would come in from the Northwest, over the Northeastern US.  Much more likely, UARS will splash crash somewhere over the Pacific.

To see LIVE where the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite is, go here…

http://spaceflightnow.com/uars/status.html

Recent estimates suggest that the FIREY return will be sometime around 11pm (+/- 3hrs) and if it happened around 11pm it would be over the Pacific Ocean (west of Chile) and it would NOT be seen in Jax.

But!

If it happens a little earlier, either on a pass around 7:15pm OR 8:50pm we could see it, if it happens exactly then…

Here’s the track to watch…

BTW, the odds of everything working out such that we will get a glimpse of this is only about 15%…

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-29/hurricane-irene-damage-deaths-flooding-losses-of-power-state-by-state.html

Click to enlarge...

MUCH, Much less than had she come in as a MAJOR hurricane.  Irene ended being a mere Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina and just a massive Tropical Storm as she pressed through the coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast.

I wouldn’t call it lucky, the signs were there, even as it was unfolding…  The Hurricane was almost too massive to recover from the multiple eye-wall replacement cycles, as the “eye” collapsed, so too did the highest winds and along with that the much more extensive storm surge.

Too much hype?, “cried wolf” again?  Too soon to tell…

Forecasting Hurricanes is one thing, the reaction people have to these forecasts can be very mysterious at times.  I have seen this vary from one county/parish to the next…

With Irene hitting the North Carolina coast line, the drought of hurricanes NOT to hit the United States has ended at 1,078 days, I believe this is the longest duration to go without a hurricane directly impacting the United States since the 1870′s.

2135 days?

This is the number of days the United States has gone without being hit by a MAJOR HURRICANE, this I am fairly sure is a record drought of the most costliest/destructive / deadliest type of hurricanes…

2135 days and counting…

The last Major to hit the United States?  Wilma in October of 2005.  October 24th, 2005.  Want to keep the count?  Here’s a days calculator… http://www.timeanddate.com/date/duration.html

What about TD 12???  Well, clearly Irene has gotten a lot of peoples attention…  We will look at this tomorrow…

The computer models are continuously being tweaked with better and better results and hurricane forecasters (professional) continue to improve their interpretation of the output they produce.  In other words, the science continues to be honed and the art of interpretation is as well…

To rest assure, you can follow Irene on radar…

Click on the image above to see the latest loop.

There has been a slight westward shift in the computer tracks this morning, but since Irene is looking a little ragged, the impact on the expected coastal conditions is net-net no change…

Going to remain well out to sea from Jax…

So far, so good…

Cutting into the Southern Bahamas this morning, soon to be a category 4 hurricane…

Click to enlarge...

As you can see above, the HWRF has shifted in line with the other models and tracks IRENE east of Jax by about 250 miles, just far enough so that we will see very little along the coast…  Winds to about 30 mph at the beach late Friday, Downtown winds under 20 mph.

Here’s where IRENE should track off to next…  Looks a lot like Floyd (1999).

Whew!  For Florida, The Carolina’s?  Keep the prayers going…

www.News4jax.com Hurricane Page http://www.news4jax.com/hurricane/index.html

Hurricane Survival Guide  http://www.news4jax.com/download/2010/0520/23623563.pdf

George’s Blog  http://jacksonville.justweather.com/local/blog/winterling/

and don’t forget, click on the Facebook image…

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST:

THE GOOD NEWS MOST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST:  Another Floyd (1999)

Many of the forecast models are strongly hinting of a track like hurricane Floyd took, just offshore of Florida, not impacting the state, at all.

Click to enlarge...

The key to these models tracking Irene like Floyd, appears to be the northern track they start and continue on… 

So, we should know fairly soon whether these forecast models are correct.   My theory is that medium to large tropical cyclones tend to be well behaved systems and therefore “re-curve” with grace.  They don’t zig-zag across the map…

Given what we know this morning, the “key” appears to be 75 West longitude and 22 North latitude.  All of the models that take Irene away from Florida (and into the Carolina’s) track Irene North of 22 north latitude at 75 west longitude.

Click to enlarge....

When will this happen?  Wednesday Morning…

WHAT’S AT RISK??? Why worry?

Well, a couple of OBVIOUS things, first Irene is not going to be just another hurricane, she will likely be of the size of Floyd which means if she rides the coast just 50 miles closer than Floyd, we would actually get rainbands with winds of tropical storm strength for the beaches, much lesser inland.

Then there is the possibility the turn is slower and closer to this forecast model, the HWRF3km…

That’s a Category 3 hurricane just of Jax Beach.  Stay tuned…

IRENE is clearly a deeper/larger than normal Tropical Storm and this has ramifications on what we should expect from her as she heads towards the United States.

Click on image to enlarge…  And you can click here to see the latest…

MEDIUM TO LARGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONES

As Irene appears to be, tend to be fairly honest and predictable systems.  They tend to:

• Develop slowly from Tropical Depression, then storm to Hurricane.
• But, after becoming a hurricane (with an “eye”), they tend to explode into major hurricanes when over super heated waters.
• They are much less impacted by mountainous islands that disrupt their circulation.
• At low-latitudes, they are highly predictable in terms of their TRACK.  What this means is that they are large so the don’t swerve one direction then the next, kind of like a cruise ship verse as speed boat.
• But they still are subject to shifting their tracks slightly as they intensify or weaken…

The subtle reorganization shift over the past 24 hours has Irene further north than the forecast models predicted yesterday.  So far, today’s models are suggesting a track for Irene that could track her just off the Florida Coast.  The downside?  This would allow her to continue to intensify…

What do you need to do?  Keep watching/reading the latest updates, make sure all your family knows what is going on (spread the word) go over the hurricane supplies in your home, prepare as if you could go through a significant period without power.  Stay informed!

Review the links below…

http://gaughanbloggin.wordpress.com/2011/08/20/75-chance-of-hurricane-force-winds/

www.News4jax.com Hurricane Page http://www.news4jax.com/hurricane/index.html

Hurricane Survival Guide  http://www.news4jax.com/download/2010/0520/23623563.pdf

George’s Blog  http://jacksonville.justweather.com/local/blog/winterling/

and don’t forget, click on the Facebook image…