2135 days and still counting…

IRENE’S aftermath, 18 dead, $3 Billion in damage, 6 Million loose power.  This is just below what I mentioned, on-air, would happen last week...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-29/hurricane-irene-damage-deaths-flooding-losses-of-power-state-by-state.html

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MUCH, Much less than had she come in as a MAJOR hurricane.  Irene ended being a mere Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina and just a massive Tropical Storm as she pressed through the coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast.

I wouldn’t call it lucky, the signs were there, even as it was unfolding…  The Hurricane was almost too massive to recover from the multiple eye-wall replacement cycles, as the “eye” collapsed, so too did the highest winds and along with that the much more extensive storm surge.

Too much hype?, “cried wolf” again?  Too soon to tell…

Forecasting Hurricanes is one thing, the reaction people have to these forecasts can be very mysterious at times.  I have seen this vary from one county/parish to the next…

With Irene hitting the North Carolina coast line, the drought of hurricanes NOT to hit the United States has ended at 1,078 days, I believe this is the longest duration to go without a hurricane directly impacting the United States since the 1870′s.

2135 days?

This is the number of days the United States has gone without being hit by a MAJOR HURRICANE, this I am fairly sure is a record drought of the most costliest/destructive / deadliest type of hurricanes…

2135 days and counting…

The last Major to hit the United States?  Wilma in October of 2005.  October 24th, 2005.  Want to keep the count?  Here’s a days calculator… http://www.timeanddate.com/date/duration.html

What about TD 12???  Well, clearly Irene has gotten a lot of peoples attention…  We will look at this tomorrow…

Getting a lot of e-mail as folks remain worried that Irene will not make the complete turn…

Hurricane Forecasting has come a long way

The computer models are continuously being tweaked with better and better results and hurricane forecasters (professional) continue to improve their interpretation of the output they produce.  In other words, the science continues to be honed and the art of interpretation is as well…

To rest assure, you can follow Irene on radar…

Click on the image above to see the latest loop.

There has been a slight westward shift in the computer tracks this morning, but since Irene is looking a little ragged, the impact on the expected coastal conditions is net-net no change…

Going to remain well out to sea from Jax…

IRENE just following the script…

Like I have mentioned,medium to large hurricanes have one redeeming quality (nothing else), they are very consistent as the forecast models all handle these storms well…

So far, so good…

Cutting into the Southern Bahamas this morning, soon to be a category 4 hurricane…

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IRENE FORECAST TRACKS FINALLY CONVERGE…

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) sent out numerous Hurricane Hunting aircraft into Irene last night, bringing in copious amounts of clean data.  As we have seen in the past, the extra data tends to clear up the hurricane models “thinking”.   Sure enough, a few forecast models that were straggling yesterday are not this morning.  Yesterday, it was the Hurricane Models, the HWRF and GFDL.

As you can see above, the HWRF has shifted in line with the other models and tracks IRENE east of Jax by about 250 miles, just far enough so that we will see very little along the coast…  Winds to about 30 mph at the beach late Friday, Downtown winds under 20 mph.

Here’s where IRENE should track off to next…  Looks a lot like Floyd (1999).

Whew!  For Florida, The Carolina’s?  Keep the prayers going…

IRENE ON TRACK FOR JACKSONVILLE-BRUNSWICK-SAVANNAH???

PLEASE, IF YOU LIVE AT THE BEACH OR HAVE FRIENDS/FAMILY WHO DO, MAKE SURE YOU/THEY REVIEW THE HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE AS IF THEY MAY HAVE TO EVACUATE LATE THIS WEEK.   Review the links below…

www.News4jax.com Hurricane Page http://www.news4jax.com/hurricane/index.html

Hurricane Survival Guide  http://www.news4jax.com/download/2010/0520/23623563.pdf

George’s Blog  http://jacksonville.justweather.com/local/blog/winterling/

and don’t forget, click on the Facebook image…

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST:

THE GOOD NEWS MOST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST:  Another Floyd (1999)

Many of the forecast models are strongly hinting of a track like hurricane Floyd took, just offshore of Florida, not impacting the state, at all.

Click to enlarge...

The key to these models tracking Irene like Floyd, appears to be the northern track they start and continue on… 

So, we should know fairly soon whether these forecast models are correct.   My theory is that medium to large tropical cyclones tend to be well behaved systems and therefore “re-curve” with grace.  They don’t zig-zag across the map…

Given what we know this morning, the “key” appears to be 75 West longitude and 22 North latitude.  All of the models that take Irene away from Florida (and into the Carolina’s) track Irene North of 22 north latitude at 75 west longitude.

Click to enlarge....

When will this happen?  Wednesday Morning…

WHAT’S AT RISK??? Why worry?

Well, a couple of OBVIOUS things, first Irene is not going to be just another hurricane, she will likely be of the size of Floyd which means if she rides the coast just 50 miles closer than Floyd, we would actually get rainbands with winds of tropical storm strength for the beaches, much lesser inland.

Then there is the possibility the turn is slower and closer to this forecast model, the HWRF3km…

That’s a Category 3 hurricane just of Jax Beach.  Stay tuned…

IRENE was declared within 3 hours of my “IMHO – Breaking News” yesterday…

Today’s “IMHO – BREAKING NEWS” is that there has been a subtle but very important shift in Irene track over the past 24 hours.  Why?  She has been reorganizing over the past 24 hours.  Happens all the time…  As Tropical Systems intensity, or weaken, the forces that steer the system vary.  Hurricanes are considered deeper systems and Tropical Depressions are shallow systems.

IRENE is clearly a deeper/larger than normal Tropical Storm and this has ramifications on what we should expect from her as she heads towards the United States.

Click on image to enlarge…  And you can click here to see the latest…

MEDIUM TO LARGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONES

As Irene appears to be, tend to be fairly honest and predictable systems.  They tend to:

• Develop slowly from Tropical Depression, then storm to Hurricane.
• But, after becoming a hurricane (with an “eye”), they tend to explode into major hurricanes when over super heated waters.
• They are much less impacted by mountainous islands that disrupt their circulation.
• At low-latitudes, they are highly predictable in terms of their TRACK.  What this means is that they are large so the don’t swerve one direction then the next, kind of like a cruise ship verse as speed boat.
• But they still are subject to shifting their tracks slightly as they intensify or weaken…

The subtle reorganization shift over the past 24 hours has Irene further north than the forecast models predicted yesterday.  So far, today’s models are suggesting a track for Irene that could track her just off the Florida Coast.  The downside?  This would allow her to continue to intensify…

What do you need to do?  Keep watching/reading the latest updates, make sure all your family knows what is going on (spread the word) go over the hurricane supplies in your home, prepare as if you could go through a significant period without power.  Stay informed!

Review the links below…

http://gaughanbloggin.wordpress.com/2011/08/20/75-chance-of-hurricane-force-winds/

www.News4jax.com Hurricane Page http://www.news4jax.com/hurricane/index.html

Hurricane Survival Guide  http://www.news4jax.com/download/2010/0520/23623563.pdf

George’s Blog  http://jacksonville.justweather.com/local/blog/winterling/

and don’t forget, click on the Facebook image…

75% Chance of Hurricane Force Winds!

Probabilities & Statistics can be so overwhelming, my favorite is…  What are the odds of flipping “heads” on a quarter after you have just flipped 49 “heads” in a row?  Yep, even after a mind blowing 49 heads in a row the odds of flipping another “heads” (NOT getting tails) are still… 50-50.

Now, you know me for my meteorology skills and maybe you know me for winning a number of CNBC/USA Today National Investment Challenges for stock picking/investing, but you might not know that I have unsuccessfully played millions of hands in online poker.  Poker is a game of probabilities and skill…  BTW, did I mention unsuccessfully?  Monetary losses were not that significant, the lost time was enormous, but what I gained was a deep understanding of statistics.  In poker they call them “bad beats”…

Where was I?  Oh yeah…

Probabilities & Statistics

“South Florida is much more prone to being impacted by a hurricane on an individual-year basis compared with northeast Florida. For instance, the probability of Miami-Dade County being impacted by hurricane-force wind gusts this year is 19%. For Duval County, the probability of being impacted by hurricane-force wind gusts is only 5%. However, considering a 50-year period, the probability of Duval County experiencing hurricane-force wind gusts is 75%.“ - Kltozbach, June 1, 2011.   Page 39, http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2011/june2011/jun2011.pdf

The basic premise is that we have NOT had hurricane force winds since 1964.  Now, hurricane Dora hit back in 1964, 47 years ago, but having a hurricane come straight in from the east into St. Augustine / Jax Beach is not how we have received all of our hurricane force winds.  They have come from hurricanes that have brushed by our Atlantic coastline and from large powerful hurricanes that have come angling in from the Gulf of Mexico or up the state.

IMHO – BREAKING NEWS, IRENE IS ABOUT TO BE NAMED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (in the next 24 hrs)

What you may or may not have been aware of, is that a couple of important Global Forecast Models have been suggesting that a significant hurricane will impact the Southeast United States sometime later this upcoming week.  See picture…

Back to the statistics…  None of which are good…

• Currently, 2146 days have passed without a Major Hurricane hitting the United States, a record.
• The Southeast Florida Coast (Miami – Fort Lauderdale) haven’t experienced a major hurricane since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, or before…
• Statistically, the highest possibilities for a Major Hurricane to hit the U.S. are between August 20th and September 15th, this storm would hit the U.S. between August 26-28th.
• The top 5 most intense hurricanes to ever hit the U.S. all occurred in the 16 day period between August 17th and September 2nd, remember this storm would possibly impact Florida during this period of time…

For Jacksonville, if this storm heads our way, it will most likely have to come in from the south, riding up along the east coast or, up the spine of the State, or turn in from the Gulf of Mexico.  All of these scenarios would cap off the maximum damaging winds to just hurricane force (+74 mph), felt mainly along our Beaches.

Bad News

This would still lead to massive power outages and disruptions for all of us!  Do you remember Frances and Jeanne from back in 2004?   How about being without power for days/weeks?  Schools being closed?  Flooding rains?  Flooding in San Marco?  Palatka?  The nearly 100 mini-micro tornadoes and waterspouts?

Good News

The system has not yet even been declared a depression by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the track error on a 7 day forecast is ridiculously large, but now is the time to review and bookmark these websites in case we are visited by Irene late this week…

www.News4jax.com Hurricane Page http://www.news4jax.com/hurricane/index.html

Hurricane Survival Guide  http://www.news4jax.com/download/2010/0520/23623563.pdf

George’s Blog  http://jacksonville.justweather.com/local/blog/winterling/

and don’t forget…

Have a Good Weekend!  I am heading to the Beach!

Lot’s Happening Overhead This Weekend!

Tropics are NOT happening, at least in a threatening way…  A number of very small/weak systems in the Atlantic could develop into a weak tropical storms over the weekend, but none of these will head our way…

Instead, let’s head out and check out a beautiful Full Moon, then the ISS and a meteor shower all on Saturday Night!

Moon rise will be at 7:58 pm, about 12 minutes BEFORE the sunsets which will be at 8:10pm.  Best to view this will be from the beach!  The moonrise will be a little dull as the sun will still be up at the time it rises, but thereafter should be great!

AND THEN…  THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION WILL FLY RIGHT OVERHEAD!

Thanks to Pete Lardizabal for another amazing shot from his backyard, this from earlier this week!  Yes, he uses a telescope, but if you have a higher powered (large) binoculars you should be able to see some of the details too…

Here’s the flight track…  Starts in the Southwest skies at 9:01pm, travels overhead at 9:05pm!

 

AND THEN…   THE PERSEIDS METEOR SHOWER…  zzzzzz…..

And then there’s the dreaded Persied meteor shower, that will peak Saturday Night, after midnight…

Why dreaded?  Not worth watching…  Due to the bright full moon these will be hard to see and only the brightest will be seen.  In this link the Weather Channel say’s we could see up to 20 per hour, I am thinking more like 4 per hour or ONE good one per every 15 minutes…

If you’re at the beach, look straight up slightly to the left of looking straight out over the ocean.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/perseids-meteor-shower-peaks_2011-08-09

 

Have a great weekend!

 

JG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Emily is back, barely, heading north and then out to sea!

After dissipating over Hispaniola, her “leftovers” followed the shallow computer models (as forecasted, see earlier posts) and now is sitting just off the coast of West Palm Beach.  She should continue to intensify into a tropical storm and move northward and then eastward out to sea, see the models at JustWeather.com

http://jacksonville.justweather.com/hurricane/#lightbox=p5&tab=w630lb

EMILY IS G-O-N-E !!!

As you may have been reading from my posts, I was never a big fan of Emily.  She had been very weak in terms of her CENTRAL PRESSURE (very high) which never corresponded to the rather spectacular satellite images we’ve seen.

Classic rule broken:  If it looks good then the internal stats better back it up!

Will Emily make a comeback?  At this time, I doubt it, but we will watch it…

What’s next?  Well, one forecast model is suggesting Franklin could roll off the coast of Africa in about 3 days.  Usually, the first of these Cape Verde systems run into too much dry air and fade away…

JG