THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HESITATED TOO LONG AND NOW THE SYSTEM IS…
Starting to seperate… This condition is called being “sheared” as winds at the upper levels of the storm are moving much faster and a different direction than those in the lower levels. This evenings final visible satellite picture shows this…
So… We wait the final verdict with the NHC 11pm update…
JG
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AT LEAST THAT IS WHAT I SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING…
10:48 AM UPDATE: NHC has upgraded 91L to Tropical Depression 1, with the intent of upgrading to Tropical Storm Ana later today… Again, this system will remain far away and will fade away in 24 hours…
It is always a guessing game whether the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will upgrade certain tropical systems, the one we have been watching for the past couple of days clearly should have been declared a depression on Tuesday.
I understand the arguments on not upgrading the system: Water temperatures are marginal, it was tracking northward, into cooler waters and was always going to remain away from land, so why bother upgrading it? Well, I would have upgraded it on the basis of keeping my credibility of being consistent, it is what it is… Anyway 3 days later, it sure does look like a minimal tropical storm with maximum winds of 40mph…
Continue to follow the NHC web site, they may upgrade this at anytime… http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
JG
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NHC MAKES NOTHING OF THE COASTAL LOW
QUICK UPDATE (11:00PM 5/27/09): The NHC did declare this 91L. In other words, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has acknowledged this systems existence by designating it, in this case 91L. Beyond this, there has been some increased thunderstorm activity and the NHC may in fact upgrade this to a tropical depression Thursday morning… If they do so, they will probably do it around 8AM or 10:30AM…
Check their web site at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Just as well, water temperatures are marginal (at or below 80 F) and thunderstorm activity never really developed. Still a decent circulation and banding was seen on Moorehead City radar earlier today… Here’s a satellite image from this afternoon…
MEANWHILE, WHAT A BEAUTIFUL RAINBOW THIS EVENING…
Not all of us saw it, but at the Beach and along the Southside we saw this, as photographed by Lysa Day…
Thanks Lysa!
JG
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Officially the hurricane season starts June 1st and runs thru November 30, but last weeks rains were partially due to an area of low pressure that gained some tropical characteristics just as it moved onshore of Alabama and Mississippi.
Now, this week we have this off our coast this morning… See satellite image below.
There is clearly a low-mid level circulation indicating low pressure and there are even a handful of thunderstorms near the center. Chances are it is a tropical depression, right now… But, the folks at the hurricane center are reluctant to clasify it at the moment. This may change by 5pm today.
Here’s the link the National Hurricane Center
JG
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THANK YOU FOR ALL OF YOUR RAIN REPORTS / PICTURES! HERE’S WHAT YOU SENT IN…
Since Sunday, the totals are similar to Tropical Storm Fay. The difference is that Fay was a 48 hour event this has lasted for 5, going on 6 days! Totals were thru 4pm, Friday, 5/22/09.
FLOODING HAS BEEN EXTREME IN VOLUSIA COUNTY…
The Daytona Speedway’s infield looks like a large lake…
* Update: Not sure of the date of this photo… More later…
WHAT NEXT???
The Sun Comes Out Tomorrow! (A little bit…) And more sun on Sunday and Monday! Yet… Rain/Downpours should be expected each day, especially along the coast in the Morning and inland in the Afternoon! You folks in Georgia will do some catching up as afternoon downpours will be more likely for you on Memorial Day. Generally, most of us will see another 1-4″ between now and Monday night.
Still… I am going to attempt to hit the beach this weekend. Keep watching the RADAR at www.justweather.com
Stay Safe! Have a good weekend!
JG
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I Twittered flashed this on Sunday afternoon… Later Sunday it was 90, sunny, breezy and still dry…
WxJohn – Major weather changes coming! Warm, Sunny now… Storms this evening & tonight. Mon-Tue: Cloudy, Breezy, Chilly with misty rains
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And not a moment too soon! See the chart below, you can see the red lines represent the consensus high and low end forecasts for Solar Cycle (Cycle 24). The blue line curving to zero represents what we have been seeing… Nothing…
Well, what do you know? (click on image to see the movie)
These two abberations (weak sunspots) appeared over the weekend. Hopefully, the trend will continue, the latest forecast from NASA is for a Solar Cycle peak in May 2013. This is more than a year later than some of the early Solar Cycle forecasts (seen in red above). Additionally, NASA expects this cycle to be one of the quietest in more than 100 years.
Later, I will get into the details of this on Earth’s Climate.
JG
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