GIVEN WHAT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE SHOWN…
I would have upgraded the Carolina Coastal Low to SUB-Tropical “Kyle” and I would upgrade the low pressure north of Hisapniola to “Laura”, or at least to Tropical Depression 11.
I’ll comment more after the National Hurricane Center POSSIBLY makes further comments at 11AM.
JG
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OUR NOR’EASTER has brought us cloudy skies, higher than normal tides and some beach erosion this morning. For more on this, page on down into this blog to see my earlier comments.
UPDATE: COASTAL HIGH TIDES ARE BASICALLY ON THE SIXES (Mayport High Tides are: 5:37pm today, 6:04am and 6:34pm tomorrow).
KYLE ISN’T GOING TO DEVELOP WHERE WE FIRST THOUGHT IT WOULD… See Picture!
Clearly a Low Pressure has developed just East of Charleston South Carolina. It is NOT a purely tropical system, which means it is stronger than most can imagine. It probably is a Tropical Storm right now! Yep, KYLE could be just East of Jax Right Now! No worries, it will turn into the Carolina’s over the next 2 days…
Hurricane Hunters will investigate this and report back after 2pm!
THE OTHER AREA OF STORMS NEAR HISPANIOLA has failed to organize. Too much ISLAND HOPPING? It may still do so, especially after tomorrow… Two named storms at the same time by Friday? A small possibility…
JG
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What do you mean Nor’easter? Recently, we have had predominately NORTHEAST WINDS and Wednesday (today) we will see winds to 40mph!
Our Nor’easter is different than a New England Nor’easter (actually everyone has a different way of accenting it). New England Nor’easters are associated by LOW PRESSURE and RAINY/SNOWY (winter) conditions.
NOT HERE… Unusually strong HIGH PRESSURE that moves just north of us, not coming right to us, teasing us with beautiful weather for a day or so and then…
EARLY SEASON NOR’EASTER’S (September-early October) are Warm and Wet, just in the past week we have had predominately NORTHEAST WINDS and RAINY CONDITIONS. Many of us along I-95 saw up to 6″ of rain! Last year, we saw up to 12″ of rain in one just Nor’easter!
WINTER SEASON NOR’EASTERS (mid-October thru February) we see cloudy, breezy chilly to cold conditions with a few Nor’easters dumping rains up to 2″ along the coast, but rarely more…
REMEMBER THE COMMONALITY IS THAT WE GET NORTHEAST WINDS. Sometimes Coastal Winds can exceed 50 mph!
AND BECAUSE THE WINDS ARE ONSHORE, we can get Coastal Beach Erosion and Coastal Tides that run well above normal, like we are seeing right now…
This picture shows our TIDAL CONDITIONS, in particular, how much ABOVE NORMAL our tides are running. That is marked by the GREEN LINE, refered to as the “residual”, we know it as the difference between what is being seen and what would be “normal”…
THE GREEN LINE is showing that tides are running up to 2 feet above nromal, which means that beaches will be very narrow and there will be beach erosion, especially at times of high tides…
Coastal High Tides are on the “FIVE’s”, 5AM and 5PM.
JG
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LOOKS BETTER ON SATELLITE LOOPS, BUT ONLY A LITTLE BETTER…
Courtesy NOAA/SSD http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
RADAR IMAGES SHOW A VERY UNORGANIZED SYSTEM…
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
HURRICANE HUNTERS WILL BE INVESTIGATING LATER TODAY.
I suspect they will find TD11. But, a very weak TD. Then again, the trend is for increased organization, so we turn to the forecast models for what comes next…
BUT BEFORE WE GET TO THEM, we need to review what kind of system this is…
This is a sheared deep tropical system developing in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. They tend to intensify slowly at first, then intensify rather explosively but, “peak” quickly. Historically, these storms don’t intensify past Hurricane Category 2 intensity. Most importantly, very rarely do they reach the United States! They are classically “fish storms” that sometimes threaten BERMUDA. Now having said this, we still need to take each storm individually, despite what is typical for these storms…
FORECAST TRACKS
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif
REMEMBER MY FORECAST RULE ABOUT EARLY STORM DEVELOPMENT…
That is the first 36 hours in a tropical storms development leads to some of the greatest errors in forecast track and intensity.
Although, I must say, given the overall pattern I do like the forecast of the HWRF. This model is known as the “Hurricane WARF” model. It is still in development, but is expected to become the primary hurricane model used by the NHC over the next few years.
HWRF
WHAT IS SO INTERESTING…
Is that this model is also forecasting a strong NORTHEASTER for NE Florida and Southeast Georgia to develop over the next 5 days…
FOR JAX, LOOKS LIKE MORE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND INCREASING COASTAL WINDS TO 45MPH BEFORE WEDNESDAY!
JG
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SUN IS QUIET… TOO QUIET…
Nasa may have something to say about this…
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/sep/HQ_M08176_Ulysses_teleconference.html
Many times these NASA press conferences are boring and they don’t have much to say, other than “we are all safe… and there’s nothing wrong…”. They may just come out and say, we have been measuring the Sun’s Solar Wind for the past 50-years and its at its lowest level…
But, then again, this time could be different, as we are nearing our 75th day without a sunspot. Since starting daily recorded observations of the Sun in 1913, this has never happened before…
For those who don’t know, sunspots run in 11-year cycles. At the peak of each cycle we can see 4-5 large sunspots on any given day. The last peak was in 2000, so the next “peak” should be in 2011. And that’s where the problem begins… It’s almost 2009 and we really haven’t started the next cycle…
Below is a look at the expected (forecast) of the current Sunspot Cycle (Cycle 24). The red line indicates what we have actually observed.
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/gifs/forecast.html 
AL93 IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING…
MORE LATER…
AND THE RAINS CAME DOWN! NORTHWEST JAX NEARLY 5″ !!!
Rains are slowly fading… For Now…
JG
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http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html#photo11#photo11
LATER THIS WEEKEND WE’LL START FOLLOWING 93L, WHY? Because, the overall pattern for the next week or so would likely push this possible storm towards the United States…
JG
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LOOKS LIKE PICTURES OF THE SAME WATERSPOUT, SHOWN BY DIFFERENT ANGLES AND DIFFERENT TIMES DURING THE LIFETIME OF THE WATERSPOUT…
THANKS STU JONES!
Thanks! Harrison Zauke!
THANKS GABE!!!
This came ashore somewhere near Ponte Vedra Beach… As is typical with land-falling waterspouts, no damage was reported…
JG
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This link is not a direct route to the pictures I want you to see… But go to the link and on the LEFT HAND SIDE of the web page there will be a list that has a header (in bold) with the words BOLIVAR PENINSULA. Below will be the link: Devastation on the Bolivar Peninsula. This is a pictoral look at what happened… Here’s an example:
This side-by-side picture is a little deceiving as the homes on the right are much closer to the Gulf of Mexico (water) as the white sandy beach is gone, as well as the first row of homes…
BY THE WAY, IF YOU LIVE ALONG ANY OF OUR BEACHES, WHEN it happens here, I expect these same POST-STORM hardships…
FISHES GOT TRAPPED WITH THE TIDE… See this on MSNBC.COM
JG
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HERE’S ONE OF MANY… http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N14452147.htm
It did hold but she lost her two cars and most everything inside the home.
MORE STORIES TO COME…
JG
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