QUICK UPDATE, OMINOUS SHIFT IN HANNA FORECAST TRACKS

JUST SAW THE LATEST 18Z MODELS, not yet available graphically, maybe after 8pm…

We all know that these forecasts will shift around, in the case of Gustav, after a bad early couple of day’s there has been very little shifting and that is why for so many days we forecasters have been so sure that Louisianna is going to be hit hard.

But Hanna’s forecast tracks have been forecasting strange things, including a loop.  That loop is discussed in my previous e-mail.  Trouble is, I just saw the most recent forecast tracks which either show loop or a very small loop and therefore have shifted more towards a track that would come within 100 miles of Jacksonville!

The good news?  These tracks will shift again…

I will update Monday by 10:30am, before the NHC announcement.  I will try to get the graphic spaghetti map out by 10pm.

PLEASE SUBMIT YOUR COMMENTS!

There will be a delay in their posting, but I’ve asked the web moderator to clear them more frequently…

JG

PRAYERS WILL BE ANSWERED???

WE PRAY SO…

And the good news this morning was that Gustav weakened, but that can change too…  this evening satellite pictures show the “eye” of Gustav strengthen again.

It looks to me that New Orleans, despite being on the worst side of Gustav will be spared from a direct hit.  Although we can’t rule out a wobble closer to the city when he makes landfall.  New Orleans was also lucky in 2005 when Katrina weakened from a category 5 to a moderate Category 3 storm. 

Yes, Katrina was only a 3.  Gustav is also a 3, we hope that’s all he’ll be when we wake-up in the morning.  Landfall of the “eye” will be right after daybreak to around noon our time.

HANNA, FOR JAX, IT’S ALL OR NOTHING…

DOES HANNA LOOP??  OR NOT??

 

The picture below shows the difference for Jacksonville is HUGE, basically an all or nothing track forecast.  So, be aware of any changes.  It should be noted there was a shift to the west in today’s tracks and that the models tend to over forecast loops.  This is why the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) track does NOT show a loop despite nearly all of the forecast models show a loop.

 

We will know very clearly Tuesday Noon on what, if any impact Hanna will have on Jacksonville.  The problem is, if we are to see trouble, trouble will come very quickly, especially if she intensifies more than what the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting.  I do consider their intensity forecast too low…

 

 

P.S. - It was a beautiful day at the beach.

 

JG

WE NEED TO BE PREPARED… For anything…

I would bookmark this web page and pass it along to friends as we are potentially looking at one of the top ten worst week’s in U.S. history for landfalling hurricanes, even if Gustav doesn’t hit New Orleans directly…  I will update when I can, but for us here in Jax it could be a very busy week.

 

http://www.news4jax.com/weather-blog/index.html

 

CLEARLY GUSTAV WILL BE A VERY INTENSE STORM

Early morning satellite pictures show a very powerful Hurricane near Cayman Island, south of Cuba.  But, note the “eye” is not very clean looking…  What that suggests to me that there is a long way to go…  Last checked by Hurricane Hunters, they found the pressure was down to 954mb.

 

 

 

 

AND THE FUTURE DOESN’T LOOK GOOD FOR LOUISIANA

The picture below is the most recent forecast made by the GFDL a very useful forecast model when forecasting hurricane intensity.  It is strongly suggesting that Gustav will be a category 4 hurricane when making landfall west of New Orleans.  Note:  The min. pressure 924.6mb and Max. 35m Wind = 137knots.  Roughly translates into winds of around 140mph near the “eye”.

 

 

 

HANNA IS ALSO A THREAT AND A TOUGHER FORECAST

Right now Gustav is clearly the dominate system, but…  If you look at the GFDL picture above, it is a 66-hour forecast, which means that in 3 day’s (72 hours) Gustav will be fading as an inland storm.  This is when Hanna will become the dominant player in the tropics and her opportunity to rapidly intensify into a hurricane.

 

It is hard to see, but Hanna is absorbing a small cold-dry upper-level low pressure.  This is causing her to remain weak, but notably large. 

 

HURRICANE TIP OF THE DAY…

When I look at each tropical system, I have found that it is important to note how/where they develop, in the case of Gustav; he was born in the deep tropics, in the Caribbean Sea.  Historically, this is where we have seen medium size, but potentially, rapidly intensifying Hurricanes develop.  Gustav is a classic case, the outcome is usually, not good.  Strangely though, these storms do have a tendency to weaken as they approach land, unless they are moving rapidly…

 

Hanna, however has developed over the Atlantic and is now fighting to stay alive as a small upper-level low is entwined in her circulation.  Classically, if these tropical storms do survive and they are able to “choke down” this cool dry low pressure then, after a couple of day’s, begin to intensify.  Strangely though, as a fairly LARGE system, where the circulation of the storm (hurricane) covers a large area.

 

Hanna type systems tend not to become more than category 3 hurricanes and if they “pause” or go stationary, once they begin to move, tend to move more North/Northeasterly.  Commonly referred to as “recurvature”, to re-curve” out to sea…

 

ENOUGH JOHN, WHAT WILL HANNA DO?

Hanna is a tough one, but based upon her “type”, without knowing anything what the forecast models predict, we know she will remain weak for at least the next 72 hours, as a strong tropical storm, or weak hurricane.  And then, intensify.  The more she does, the more likely she will move more northerly, keep in mind she will likely continue a westerly direction through the next 72 hours, but at a slow pace.

 

O.K. WHAT DO THE FORECAST MODELS SAY?

Those models that keep her weak, keep her further south and push her into the Gulf of Mexico, those models that slowly intensify her, as expected, take her westward or Northwestward towards… Florida… or the Carolina’s…

 

RIGHT NOW, TWO MODELS SUGGEST THAT JACKSONVILLE WILL BE IMPACTED, BY HANNA, SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY…

 

Subject to major changes, keep in mind the errors on these forecast are about 250 miles, both the GFS and NoGaps, two respectable forecast models have Hanna heading towards Jax.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WE NEED TO BE PREPARED… FOR ANYTHING….

Yes, there’s a good chance the worst of Hanna will miss us, the problem is Hanna will be a fairly large storm (larger in size than Gustav), which means even if she “misses us” we could again see Tropical Storm Force winds.

 

NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY MORNING…

 

JG

THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND I WILL BE BLOGGING…

RESTOCKING MY USED SUPPLIES (FROM FAY) AND HANGING AROUND AT THE BEACH… ENJOY THIS WEEKEND AS NEXT WEEK COULD GET BUSY FOR US AGAIN…

Here’s what everyone already knows:

·     It’s Labor Day Weekend, a notorious weekend where severe hurricanes have left thousands dead.

·     Katrina’s anniversary is Today.

·     Gustav’s track, by the NHC, is still indicating a path towards New Orleans.

·     Hanna is heading towards Florida, South Florida.

Here’s what they suspect, correctly:

·     Gustav will hit New Orleans, or at least near the NE Texas coast-Louisiana to Mississippi.

·     Hanna will head westward and then head west towards Florida

·     There will be THREE named storms by Tuesday, Ike is coming off the coast of Africa right now…

Here’s what will we need to watch that will change this:

WHEN THERE ARE MULTIPLE STORMS, SIZE MATTERS:

·     GUSTAV will deepen rapidly into a Category 4 hurricane, especially over the next 48 hours, but yet, FAILS to expand in SIZE.  Keep in mind; the reason Gustav has failed to intensify has been the very small footprint (size) he is…  “Island Hoping” and his small size is what has kept him a weak Tropical Storm and (unexpectedly, to the NHC forecast) moving southward for a number of day’s, now is his chance to become a monster and dominate Hanna and the Gulf of Mexico.

·     HANNA is already a larger storm, in terms of circulation, and will be dominate over Gustav until Gustav does expand in size.  Importantly, what you need to watch, is that should Hanna become a major Hurricane say by Monday Evening AND is located at 24-26North and 75 West, somewhere along the U.S. coast will be hit/impacted by this powerful storm…

·      In terms of HANNA and Jacksonville (remember Gustav will not be a threat to Jacksonville) a weaker more westerly or even southerly Hanna track or would be better for Jacksonville.

This weekend, while staying informed about these storms, compare their SIZE (how large they look on satellite images) and to a certain extent their INTENSITY (the highest sustained winds).  The bigger Hanna is the greater the threat to Jacksonville and the S.E. United States Coast, from the Florida Key’s to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.’

I have found that with large multiple tropical cyclones, the Navy NoGaps, while not precise, gives off the best HINTS of what might happen…  Here’s the link you might want to watch when you get the chance:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=ngp_namer

If you have a problem getting to this link leave a comment, I will give you a better way to get there… 

For many of you this will be too technical, so I will also be updating the Blog all weekend with pictures everyone can understand…

STAY TUNED JACKSONVILLE, Gustav actually will play an important role in Hanna’s future and our weather next week.

JG

MORE TROUBLE, MAKE THAT DOUBLE…

GUSTAV CAME OH SO CLOSE TO DISINTEGRATING

Hurricane Hunters, yesterday evening, found that Gustav had weakened considerably and had shifted to the WSW, always an indication of weakening, more on this later with TD8. On more than one pass through the highly disorganized Gustav, Hurricane Hunters found that winds had decreased to barely Tropical Storm strength. The reaction from the Hurricane Center was to announce that their 5 day forecast no longer had Gustav becoming a major hurricane (11pm Advisory). The reality is, Gustav had to totally disintegrate into an open wave (weaker than a depression) for this to be a plausible forecast, instead Gustav is back and I see no reason that rapid intensification won’t almost immediately occur. Expect Hurricane Gustav by 5pm today.

MEANWHILE… TD8, make that Hanna… 

Will likely a problem for Florida, but there are a few positives, including Hanna never reaching the Florida Coastline. Dry Air will be shoved into the storm in about 3 days’ that will likely weaken whatever it is, furthermore, dry air is heavier than moist air and will likely push Hanna, Southwestward or even Southward in about 4 day’s (Sun.-Mon.).

 

TOO MUCH ANTICIPATION ABOUT GUSTAV???

GUSTAV, SOON-TO-BE CATEGORY 5 STORM POISED TO TAKE OUT NEW ORLEANS!

AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH……..  I WOULDN’T BE TOO SURE ABOUT NEW ORLEANS.  HERE’S WHY…

1.)  With a storm at 20 degrees North latitude, I would expect error on a 5 day forecast is about 200 miles, either side of the official track…

2.)  As mentioned on-air there are times in which LONG-RANGE forecast models are NOT very accurate.

• The first forecasts made during the first 36 hours of storm development are usually “off”…
• When there are multiple “player’s”, other areas of tropical weather.  There are at least 2 other “player’s” near Gustav.
• When a tropical cyclone “stalls”, Gustav is barely moving.
• When a tropical cyclone weakens abruptly, whether “island hopping” or is interacting with a upper-level low pressure…

LET’S SEE…  GUSTAV IS BASICALLY 4 FOR 4 ON THIS LIST

And this morning as I glance at the early morning satellite images, he looks terrible, A VERY GOOD THING…

BELOW IS THIS MORNING’S SPAGHETTI TRACKS (MULTIPLE FORECASTS TRACKS) AND THEY SHOW MUCH MORE SPREAD.

Furthermore, if you look at the different models, note that the light blue circles (NOGAPS), pink circles (GFDL), the dark gray squares (TVCN, which is a consensus model) are all to the right of the red circle track (The Official Track by the National Hurricane Center, NHC).

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

It means that if the NEXT (available around 2pm) set of similar models again shift right, or remain about where they are pointing, then we will see a shift in the “official forecast”.  A shift to the ”right”,  It may not be by much, but it may be the beginning of a trend of additional future shifting…

JG

HURRICANE GUSTAV, JUST LIKE THAT… TODAY WE ARE MAKING A BIG BLOG!!

GRAB A CUP OF COFFEE, TODAY’S BLOG IS “BIG” as in IMPORTANT and LONG…

YESTERDAY’S “EYE” FEATURE FORETOLD US WHAT HURRICANE HUNTERS CONFIRMED OVERNIGHT…

URNT12 KNHC 261154
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 26/11:18:20Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
  072 deg 00 min W
C.700 mb 2963 m
D. 66  kt
E.209 deg 006 nm
F. 291 deg 056 kt
G.216 deg 008 nm
H.        982  mb
I.   9 C/ 3047 m
J.  15 C/ 3051 m
K.   9 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C14
N. 12345/ 7
O.0.02 /  2 nm
P. AF307 0207A GUSTAV OB 26
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NE QUAD 0733 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 1123 Z
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN ON RADAR

Here’s the link for Gustav… http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml? and this link will help you learn more (once you go to this link look to the bottom of the page to learn more on how to read this information, in particular the link to “Appendix G” which is a PDF file…  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml 

If you are new to what the above information regards, it is a VORTEX MESSAGEfrom a hurricane hunter.  Basically, each letter listed A thru P, offers an important piece of information about whatever the Hurricane Hunters have found. 

FOR OUR UNDERSTANDING all we are interested are the letter’s “H & L”…  “H” is the lowest measured pressure (below 987 suggests hurricane) and “L”, is for the description of the “Eye”, in this case it is not “closed” or a perfect circle, but rather it has a chunk missing, or “open west”.

GUSTAV IS A VERY SMALL (SIZE) HURRICANE WHICH MEANS THE FOLLOWING:  Intensity fluctuations can be dramatic, both weakening and strengthening.  Shortly it will be the former and then the later…

Short term weakening (next 48hours) doesn’t matter, I am sure that GUSTAV will be a massive hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans should already be preparing, right now…

BUT WAIT!  THERE ARE OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT ARE OUT THERE!?! 95L ?!?

Yes, no doubt there are number of chopped up areas of thunderstorms, only one, 95L will also develop.  And this is where the forecast models SPLIT.  Either, they massively develop Gustav or they develop 95 L.  It is as if these models have a hundred dollars to spread between the two storms and have decided to either give $90 to Gustav and $10 to 95L, or visa-versa.  But, the third option, is that they both can get MORE!

FINALLY SOME PICTURES!

First…  THE PLAYER’S…  TOO MANY PLAYER’S AND THE FORECAST MODELS GET “STUPID”

THE NOGAPS DEVELOPS GUSTAV… By the way the Navy Produces this model and you can get this latest information from their web site… https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/public/ Look under Meteorology, Global and Regional Weather Prediction Charts (WXMAP).

AND THEN THERE’S THE GFS, CONSIDERED THE BEST DAY TO DAY AND MOST WIDELY USED MODEL see picture below…

The picture above is also for this Saturday Night and comes from the 2008082606z GFS model.

Note:  That Hanna forms from 95-L and is heading Northward into the Atlantic, meanwhile Gustav is a mess as a tropical depression floating west into the Yucatan.

WHO TO BELIEVE?

Keep it simple, what makes more sense?  Clearly Gustav is already established and unless he disintegrates over SW Haiti, he is likely to remain the MAIN PLAYER.

BUT WHAT ABOUT HANNA?

Why not both?  Hanna will also form and drift Northward…

LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS COMING UP!

So, it appears on this Labor Day weekend the tropics will be fully engaged and there is even the possibility that yet a third system develops out in the far Eastern Atlantic!

WHEW!  THAT WAS ONE BIG BLOG!  Again the important points, GUSTAV a powerful Hurricane for the Gulf of Mexico, Hanna develops over the next 2 day’s and a third system may form by Labor Day!

JG

As I Mentioned at 10AM TD7, now I will tell you that Hurricane Gustav may already be here!

SATELLITE PICTURE CLEARLY SHOWS AN “EYE” LIKE STRUCTURE…

NHC will upgrade to GUSTAV at any time…

This wouldn’t be surprising, once again my rapid intensification model is moderately suggesting that Gustav will rapidly intensify, the only inhibiting aspects are the HUGE Cold-Core-Low swirling near Bermuda and interaction with the “Islands”…

JG

CRUSHED BY YOUR E-MAIL… I WILL WRITE YOU BACK!

3 QUICK NOTES THIS MORNING:

1.)  THANK YOU FOR WRITING!  Unfortunately, my e-mail folder was closed down for a while on Friday/Saturday.  It will take me some time to clear it all and I will try to write back to you all.  I have read and cleared about 250 with another 900 to go (587 for weather4jax@yahoo.com and 313 for john@wjxt.com)

2.)  NOW, I WOULD APPRECIATE ANY RAINFALL REPORTS, if you a RAIN GAUGE, please write back…  I need to know… 1.)  STORM TOTAL (last weeks amount), where (exactly, or as close as you can) it was measured, or recorded and finally your name!  THANKS!

3.)  LATER TODAY I will Blog about GUSTAV, yes, satellite imagery and scatterometer data suggest that TD7 has formed where I was discussing back on Friday.  In the Caribbean Sea…

JG

OOPS BROKE A CARDINAL RULE…

ALWAYS WORRY THAT I WILL GIVE TOO MANY SECRETS OUT WHEN BLOGGING…

But I broke a cardinal rule so here’ s what happened this morning…

I woke up this morning (got 5 hours!) having a METEOROLOGICAL NIGHTMARE, a heart pounding fear that I blew the forecast… 

I was expecting to hear pounding winds and rains, instead I heard a Mocking bird chirping away… Mocking Bird??? No way!?!

I jumped out of bed, looked out and saw… No rain, breezy, but no rain… Where’s FAY?!?

RUSHED TO THE COMPUTER

FAY did she go South? Break-up? I was asking myself…  Oh no… The power had been out, the computer is off, my panic was settling in, then the computer fired up…

OH!  OF COURSE!

I broke my Cardinal rule of Hurricane Forecasting…  And this is a BIG RULE, so don’t tell anybody, keep it to yourself…  The rule is… NEVER forecast the future track of a Hurricane, once the storm has stalled.

That is a HUGE RULE and I forgot it, as I had gotten my head too deep into the computer models that I forgot my own rules.  Yes, I know it sound pretentious (that I can be better than a Computer Model), but you see computer models can compute, but I can think…  And I forgot an important rule…

FAY IS NOW DRIFTING CONSISTENTLY, an indication that we will see her follow the track the NHC is showing.

SO WHAT DO WE EXPECT NOW?  EASY AS 1-2-3, THAT IS, THE 3 ROUNDS OF FAY…

I

ROUND 1 ROLLING THROUGH NOW, RAIN AMOUNTS ONLY 1-2″, WINDS GUST TO 45MPH, I AM NOT EXPECTING FLOODING RAINS THROUGH 6PM.

 

ROUND 2 – NORTH OF TOWN, THE RAINS NEVER STOP, BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO ROUND 3… SOUTH OF TOWN, THE RAINS END, WINDS CONTINUE… THROUGH 6PM…

 

3.) AND THEN THE BIG QUESTION….  ROUND 3, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE EASTSIDE OF FAY START PUMPING RAINS ONSHORE.  THIS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/TOMORROW. Winds will be less (25-35mph) but the rains could be torrential in spots…

 

JG