WHAT UP HOLMES !?!?!

COMET HOLMES

Is overhead, in the Northeast skies between Cassiopia (which looks like a “W”) and the Pleiades (which looks like a cluster of stars). 

Photo by Pete Lardizabal

Pete took this picture with his telescope, but I have heard in a darken sky, not near too many street light and buildings, you can see the comet with the naked eye, it appears as a fuzz ball, then with a pair of binoculars you should see the image you see above…

Once again, it is in the Northeast sky, not overhead, but about 2/3rds the way up…

Good Luck!

JG

COLD STREAK CONTINUES!!! 20′S THIS MORNING!!!

COLD STREAK CONTINUES!!! 20′S THIS MORNING!!! Posted by john gaughan at 11/8/2007 5:12 PM Here are some of this Morning’s Lows, November 8th, 2007. 42  –  Jacksonville International Airport 25 –  Homerville, GA 29 –  Waycross, GA 29 –  Nahunta, GA 29 –  Baxley, GA 30 –  Alma, GA 30 –  Pridgen, GA 31 –  Patterson, GA 32 –  Woodbine, GA 32 –  Alachua, FL 32 –  Wellborn, FL 32 –  Jasper, FL 33 –  High Springs, FL 34 –  Live Oak, FL 38 –  Gainesville, FL 44 –  St. Simons, GA 46 –  St. Augustine 47 –  Craig Field (Arlington) 49 –  Mayport, FL 49 –  Jacksonville, Beach BRRRR…..  Thanks to George Winterling for compiling these numbers! JG  … Read More »

LAST WEEK, NOR’EASTER AND HURRICANE NOEL

LAST WEEK, NOR’EASTER AND HURRICANE NOEL Posted by john gaughan at 11/7/2007 1:24 PM THIS WEEK…  BRRRR….. 5 Mornings and counting!  Not since last FEBRUARY will we have had this many mornings start out in the 40’s (or lower). Last February, we had 18 mornings in a row, culminating with a 23 on February 17th! TONIGHT, FROST IN GEORGIA? Maybe near Alma and Nahunta, but otherwise overnight lows will again be right around 40 here in Jax. CAREFUL WITH SPACE HEATERS! Keep them away from bedding, kids, and pets. LOOK FOR ANOTHER 4 MORNINGS With starting temps in the 40’s. JG

NOEL STRETCHING OUT, MOVING AWAY…

NOEL STRETCHING OUT, MOVING AWAY… Posted by john gaughan at 11/1/2007 10:55 AM NOEL IS LOOKING VERY SHEARED Classic look of a late season Tropical System… NOEL WILL FOLLOW NHC TRACK… Becoming a powerful NON-TROPICAL storm just off the United States East Coast.  After killing nearly 100 in the Caribbean Basin (Haiti and Dominican Republic). GOOD NEWS ??? Surf will be up and should clean up as Northwest (offshore winds) develop starting on Friday.  Furthermore, our weekend will be FANTASTIC !! GREAT WEATHER, FALL TEMPERATURES !!! And we set our clocks back one hour should make this weekend ideal! JG

NOEL – TRICK OR TREAT???

NOEL – TRICK OR TREAT??? Posted by john gaughan at 10/31/2007 12:52 PM THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT ON THE FINAL OUTCOME OF NOEL, OR HIS LEFTOVERS, WILL DO… Yet, clearly there will be a seperation of Noel’s thunderstorms from its circulation center and this may or may not lead to Noel rapid acceleration away from the Florida Coast… HERE’S THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NHC NHC YET, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL MOVING NORTHWEST… A condition that is very common this time of year when upper-level winds are fast, they can litterally split the storm system into two parts.  And this is being strongly hinted by many forecast models.  The NHC is aware of this, but aren’t sure what the forecast models are actually forecasting.  So, to keep in continuity with their prior forecasts they just track Noel North, then NorthEast, rapidly over the next 2-3 days. THE REALITY IS… Noel will seperate and a low level swirl will persist behind another area of low pressure that may, or, may not form somewhere well east of Jacskonville. So, from a meteorological perspective it will be much more complicated than the current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center would suggest… We will keep watching, below is a picture of the seperation of the thunderstorms and Noel’s low-level swirl… NASA Keep in mind, other than the “swirl” getting closer to Miami than what is currently being anticipated, the results will be NO DIFFERENT, as a weaker swirl will not bring the intense severe storms (which are east of Noel) over the SE Florida coast. And there will be absolutely no changes for our weather here in NE FL/SE GA.  GREAT NIGHT FOR TRICK OR TREATING! Just watch out for the kids!  Sunset is 6:40PM, it will be dark after 7:00pm. JG

SUN’S BACK, UNEXPECTEDLY…

SUN’S BACK, UNEXPECTEDLY… Posted by john gaughan at 10/30/2007 9:45 AM

IF YOU’RE GOING TO BLOW A FORECAST

Make sure you overplay it, don’t let people get “caught” in it…

LOL!  Yes, the sun’s back and conditions have improved with winds only 15-25mph, along the coast.  What happened? FINALLY, the late October/November surge of DRY AIR arrived!  Is it should have about 3 weeks ago…

NO MORE RAIN? NO SUCH LUCK…

As Noel passes the Florida coast, in a matter of days, we should see one more surge of moisture, so it appears that on Wednesday/Thursday we could see a band, or two of rain long the coast.

BTW, NOEL…

Has been somewhat stationary and unorganised over the past few hours…  This too was unexpected by most hurricane models.  What does this mean?  An even greater chance that Noel will begin a more abrupt turn to the North and Northeast in about 2 days, staying off the SE coast of Florida.  I will talk more later on Noel.

NASA

NOEL, THE 14TH NAMED STORM…

Courtesy NASA

Has tracked over a very mountainous region of Haiti and has had its central core totally disrupted which means only slow redevelopment is probable over the next couple of days.

TRACK OF NOEL

Pretty much as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting, staying well off the Florida coastline.  IF HOWEVER, Noel remains weak, a track towards SE Floirda, as a very weak low pressure/swirl is more likely… More later if this happens.

INTENSITY

The tale of two very different NOEL’S, if Noel continues northward and at a fairly quick pace then he could more easily intensify and possible become a weak hurricane over the Atlantic.  More likely is the Noel that moves NW then North and remains a minimal tropical storm.

SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECASTS

The Drudgereport had a headline that suggested that Seasonal Hurricane Forecasters blew it again…  They refer to this web site

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

The information here suggests that this was a very weak season, but in fact, the way this individual tabulates his numbers and how the Colorado State Forecasters do are Apples and Oranges apart from each other… 

SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECASTERS HIT THEIR MARK

Early seasonal forecast was for 14-16 storms, well above the average of 10 storms.  So far, with a month to go, we have had 14. 

JG

SATELLITE IMAGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA… TROPICS HEATING UP???

SATELLITE IMAGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA… TROPICS HEATING UP??? Posted by john gaughan at 10/23/2007 3:27 PM

YAHOO IS POSTING SOME OF THESE IMAGES…

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

http://news.search.yahoo.com/search/news?ei=UTF-8&p=satellite+california&c=&fr=&c=images

MEANWHILE SATELLITE IMAGES NEAR PUERTO RICO…

Are suggesting a sub-tropical low is forming, a number of forecast models take this out to sea…  But, the NOGAPS, a model that tends to do well with larger sub-tropical systems suggests a westerly course over the next 5 days…

So, the tropics aren’t dead afterall…

 JG

ARE YOU READY FOR FOOTBALL ???

ARE YOU READY FOR FOOTBALL ??? Posted by john gaughan at 10/22/2007 12:06 PM

BRING YOUR “TEAL” JAGUAR RAIN GEAR TONIGHT!

NOT AS BAD AS LAST MONTHS RAINS…

Courtesy Roy Daniel

Remember that picture?  6-10″ in a matter of hours, with the pumps not turned on, the stadium turned into a fishbowl.  But not tonight!  with the rains coming in early we should be looking OK, not great, for tonight’s game.

A few showers are possible all evening, but the 1-2″ downpours from this morning/early afternoon will fade providing a WARM STICKY night .

Come on out and get your sweat on for the Jags most important game in nearly a decade!

See you at the game!

JG

WHAT DO YOU DO AFTER 30″ OF RAIN???

Get your life back on track…

Fixing Bathrooms / Repairing Cars / Upgrade Software (both at home and at the office) / Find time to be with your kids and wife, and did I mention HALO 3 came out recently?

So, I am back…  But it will be sometime before I get the blog back-up to the daily updates.  Usually I do my updates just after 9AM, so if you are at work, school whatever check then to see if I am back.

First problem, fixing the bathroom shower…

Will show you all the pictures later…

The tropics are quiet, looks like the season is near over, despite the Seasonal Forecast updated earlier this month.

JG

NEED YOUR HELP! IN REPORTING AMOUNTS! COCORAHS!

NEED YOUR HELP! IN REPORTING AMOUNTS! COCORAHS! Posted by john gaughan at 10/8/2007 3:57 PM

After the 2 to 2 1/2 feet of rain that fell across the area, it is so important for rain amounts to be collected so that emergeny responders can help out those that need it most.  Yes, the National Weather Service (NWS) can use radar technology to get an ESTIMATE, but as we saw with the recent rains, their estimate was less than what was actually observed.

That is why it is so necessary to have a field observation, or in this case, a backyard observation…

If you have a raingauge, they are relatively cheap and found at most hardware stores, you can help the reporting of rainfall and other conditions by joining up with this group…

COCORAHS – Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network, http://www.cocorahs.org/

And don’t forget to e-mail us too!  You can always e-mail me at weather4jax@yahoo.com or john@wjxt.com

JG

YIPPEEE!!!! THE SUN IS BACK AND FEELS GREAT!

YIPPEEE!!!! THE SUN IS BACK AND FEELS GREAT! Posted by john gaughan at 10/8/2007 2:50 PM

2 DAYS IN A ROW!!!

Sunshine returned on Sunday, Jags won too!  Today actually felt nice, and hot…

HOT AND HUMID

The next couple of days will be more Summer-like than Fall-like.

SO, AFTER 30 INCHES OF RAIN, IT IS OVER???

YES!

Back to a more normal pattern from here…  October, especially after the first week, starts a climatological period that is our driest of the year.  Yes, it still rains, but only once in a while, and more typically, all at once with the rest of the days dry, pleasantly warm in the afternoon and cooler, yet mild nights (60’s).

Tomorrow, we will talk tropics (what happen to the Low over Cuba) and tally up the final rainfall totals…

 JG

YIPPEEE!!!! THE SUN IS BACK AND FEELS GREAT! Posted by john gaughan at 10/8/2007 2:50 PM

2 DAYS IN A ROW!!!

Sunshine returned on Sunday, Jags won too!  Today actually felt nice, and hot…

HOT AND HUMID

The next couple of days will be more Summer-like than Fall-like.

SO, AFTER 30 INCHES OF RAIN, IT IS OVER???

YES!

Back to a more normal pattern from here…  October, especially after the first week, starts a climatological period that is our driest of the year.  Yes, it still rains, but only once in a while, and more typically, all at once with the rest of the days dry, pleasantly warm in the afternoon and cooler, yet mild nights (60’s).

Tomorrow, we will talk tropics (what happen to the Low over Cuba) and tally up the final rainfall totals…

 JG

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING OVER CUBA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING OVER CUBA Posted by john gaughan at 10/5/2007 8:54 PM

SATELLITE AND RADAR

Are showing significant increase in organization of the area of Low Pressure George and I showed on-air during the early evening newscasts.  Here’s a radar image out of Key West.

NWS Radar – 200710052106edt

The area will move SOUTHWESTWARD across Cuba tonight.  Here’s the problem, the waters south of Cuba are well known to be some of the hottest in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin.  What I believe this means is that a tropical depression will form overnight or during the day tomorrow.  If this happens, it could RAPIDLY INTENSIFY into a hurricane by Sunday Night or Monday.

However, my research suggests that the SW motion is a negative for tropical storm development, therefore the next 24 hours are critical for the systems survival.  The rule here is that, commonly, tropical systems that travel SW weaken with time.

BUT…  If they intensify, then WATCHOUT for Rapid Intensification!  Recent example is Katrina, which traveled SW over Florida.

More later on this…

UNTIL THE PATTERN BREAKS

I am expecting more LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS.  And, yet, more sunshine tomorrow.  Today was a completely cloudy/dreary day even if you didn’t get heavy rains.  Tomorrow and Sunday we should, at the minimum, see a couple of hours of sunshine each day.

 JG