RAINFALL AMOUNTS

RAINFALL AMOUNTS
Posted by john gaughan at 10/3/2007 7:12 PM
PAST 2 DAYS
14.03″ Fruit Cove
14.03″ Julington Creek
11.20″ Cimarrone
10.92″ Mandarin
7.26″ Normandy
6.96″ Jax Beach
6.92″ Palm Valley
6.44″ San Marco
5.22″ Orange Park
5.20″ Arlington
3.90″ St. Augustine
2.42″ AIRPORT – “Officially” what we saw…
Yes, it happens to be that the “official” rain amount is just 2″
PAST 16 DAY (2 WEEKS)
23.83″ MANDARIN
21.26″ BEAUCLERC
21.15″ FRUIT COVE / JULINGTON CREEK
18.70″ JAX BEACH
18.50″ PONTE VEDRA BEACH
17.22″ ST. AUGUSTINE
16.23″ CIMAROONE (I-95 AND SR 210)
15.40″ TV-4 (SOUTHBANK-DOWNTOWN)
15.29″ PALM VALLEY
13.76″ NORMANDY (I-10 AND I-295)
13.45″ CRAIG (EAST ARLINGTON)
12.34″ HASTINGS (SW ST. JOHNS CO.)
8.78″ JAX NAVAL AIR STATION
6.38″ AIRPORT
2.95″ LAKE CITY
Note the rainfall amounts have been MUCH, MUCH LESS west of town.
I may add a few more later…
JG
HOW TO DISCRIBE RECENT RAINS? RAIN HAPPENS…
Posted by john gaughan at 10/3/2007 10:59 AM
TO US ALL… Of course, I am cynically saying this…
Although not nearly as bad as others “got it”, it was a tough overnight and morning at the Gaughan’s…
Surrounded by up to a foot of water, I now have a moat. The water went 3/4ths around the house, I am doing some backyard bailing right now.
front yard
Side yard.

CAR ACCIDENT
Then the oldest daughter was involved in a “could have been worse” fender bender. It involved a number of cars, she seems ok, just a little bit of shock. It was her first accident.
Luckily, the green car in the water swerved away, just clipping her “Big Blue” van. Otherwise, the impact would have been worse…
Front left damage to the wheel area…
Bumper Damage, rear right side crunched…
What a 24 hours! Seems like the sun is just slowly coming out…
JG

HANG IN THERE THE SUN IS COMING!
Posted by john gaughan at 10/3/2007 7:30 AM
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS!
Very tough to predict extreme rains, the worst were concentrated in a 10mile by 15 mile area. Anyone outside of this saw downpours, but rain amounts that left some minor flooding that receded quickly.
THE 10mile by 15mile area was concentrated in the corner of NW St. Johns County and SE Duval County see RAINFALL MAP.
See the prior blog on why…
NWS, Jax Rainfall totals
DESPITE SOME SUN, MORE DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY!!!
Later we will talk tropics, this morning I can now count at least 3 possible areas of tropical storm development…
JG

NOT-SO “MINI-ME” NOR’EASTER, RAINFALL UP TO 8″ !!!
Posted by john gaughan at 10/2/2007 8:44 PM
VERY HARD TO PREDICT, EXTREME RAINS MOVE-IN
After being “dumped on” two weeks ago by 3-12″ of rain over three days, we again are hammered by rainfall amounts of up to 8″… Yikes!!
Not nearly as widespread as the prior Nor’easter this one concentrated its rains from Palm Valley through Fruit Cove and the Julington Creek area, across the St. Johns River to Ornage Park, through the westside to the I-10/295 merge near Normandy. All of these areas recieved 5-8″ of rain. Most between 3pm and 9pm. See Rainfall map ABOVE.
RAINS ONCE AGAIN “TRAIN” INTO THE SAME LOCATION
Hard to imagine, but let’s try… A train has an engine at the front, followed by coal/box cars, finally a caboose. A train follows the SAME track, all the cars go over the same spot. Well, imagine that each coal/box car dumps out an 1″ of rain over the same location. Well, the water quickly turns into a flood. As a forecaster, this is very difficult to predict, as a slight “lean” in the track and the rain amounts on one location never reach flooding amounts. Pretty tricky…
ARE WE DONE YET?
Yes, we are! Just scattered downpours from here on out, maybe another inch.
FLOODED ROADS/COMMUNITIES
Same westside locations, from I-10 Cassat and the I-95/I-10 merge (near the construction area), McCoy’s Creek and various subdivisions on the Southside all getting flooded. The good news the water should all receed by daybreak. Still many locations will be “swampy” through tomorrow.

Hang in there, SUNNY SKIES RETURN TOMORROW! WEDNESDAY!
JG …

RED TIDE, MINI-NOR’EASTER, MORE RAIN FOLLOWED BY WARM-HUMID WEEKEND, FINAL SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
Posted by john gaughan at 10/2/2007 7:37 AM
AFTER A FEW TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES
I am back!
RED TIDE CONDITIONS
Have improved along the coast. What caused it? Well similar conditions to the previous two red tide conditions, 1999, 2003. First, above normal water temps, water temps that were in the mid to upper 80’s. Second, a dry period leading into a strong Northeast wind with heavy rains. The rains change the water salinity (saltiness of the ocean) and the high winds dropped the water temps (by mixing the water) allowing a bloom of bacteria. The result was a rather nasty cough and burning eyes.
The good news is these conditions should continue to fade and be completely faded by this weekend.
ANOTHER NOR’EASTER, THIS IS THE “MINI-ME” VERSION
Bands of heavier and steadier rains will be moving ashore later today, starting at the beach and moving inland. Rainfall amounts will be much less than the 7-12″ we saw two weeks ago, but none-the-less, for many of us it will be nasty later today into tomorrow pre-sunrise.
Heaviest amounts will see about 1-2″, most will see around an inch before it is over. After sunrise tomorrow, a few downpours, but they will be much more scattered and the humidity comes back along with daytime highs that will “feel-like” the 90’s!! Yes, heat and humidity.
EIGHT NAMED STORMS IN SEPTEMBER!!!
Yet, very strong upper-level winds destroyed FIVE of these tropical systems that under normal seasonal upper-level winds would have allowed these storms to become powerful hurricanes. Another reason that 2007 has been a very LUCKY season.
These upper-level winds are coming from upper-level low pressure systems that literally stretch from Florida across the Atlantic Ocean. Extremely rare for the first of October. The area of low pressure over Florida is directly contributing to the Nor’easter conditions we have seen.
Later today we will again hear from the Seasonal Hurricane Forecasters from Colorado State University. Dr. Klotzbach (having taken over for Dr. Gray) will be releasing his final forecast of the 2007 hurricane season. I will talk more about this later today or tonight.
JG … Read More »

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE!

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE!
Posted by john gaughan at 9/27/2007 10:37 AM
SEPTEMBER STORMS TEND TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AND…
Become hurricanes, this year has been very unusual as winds between 20,000 and 40,000 feet have been too strong for tropical systems to develop.
KAREN is another case in point, like INGRID, a well develop system that came off the coast of Africa, it too, is getting sheared apart by these strong winds.
Yesterday (Wednesday) KAREN was probably, briefly, a Hurricane (the NHC even believes this to be true), but this Morning, she’s just another swirl in the Atlantic as again unusually strong upper-level winds have decoupled the low-level from the upper level. See picture below.
As mentioned back on Tuesday, KAREN will probably not survive the next 3 days. But, if she is able to, the same rule applies to KAREN as it did for INGRID. That is, IF, she survives the next 3 days, then WATCHOUT! The theory here is that if the system can survive hostile conditions, then it obviously has a lot going for it and so when conditions get good (not even perfect) strengthening can be rapid.
TRACK OF KAREN… LONGER TERM…
A number of forecast models put KAREN (or her remnants) near 24N 58W and then drift her slowly for a number of days. Before anyone bites into this possibility, I would remind everyone that there’s little historical precedence for this and as such, despite what the current forecast models suggest will happen over the next 7-10 days, chance are this area of low pressure will continue on a west-northwest course towards the United States well into next week. Yes, a pause, may occur, after which a west-northwest motion should develop, especially if KAREN makes it past 65W longitude. The US still needs to watch what happens with KAREN.MEANWHILE, UNLUCKY TD 13, IS LUCKY FOR MEXICO
Continues to meander East of Veracruz, Mexico. I still see a period of rapid intensification. TD13 will become LORENZO and it is NOT a sure bet the LORENZO will move ashore right away, although this seems to be happening, if he lingers offshore beyong Friday, a slow drift NW then North could develop.
THEN THERE’S THIS EAST OF FLORIDA
The interesting part of this system is that as it develops it will draw-in moisture, reducing the chances of rain for us the next few days. So, foggy inland mornings and mostly sunny beautiful days are likely until Sunday, and then… A Nor’easter (mini, not like last week’s 7-12″) may develop. Sunday late through Wednesday, early next week looks wet.
AND FINALLY…
Another system in the far, far, eastern Atlantic Ocean may develop over the next few days, all indications are this one will never make it across the Atlantic Ocean, as it will, at some point, turn north into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

JG

KAREN IN THE ATLANTIC TD #13 IN THE GULF
Posted by john gaughan at 9/25/2007 2:23 PM
KAREN LOOKS IMPRESSIVE, BUT…
As of this morning, wind shear is likely to stifle this system just as INGRID (two weeks ago) failed to develop, KAREN will also run into a wall of strong Westerly Winds. The NHC is right on about the upper-level winds that will directly impact KAREN in about 36 hours which means, there is only a small window of opportunity for KAREN to become a hurricane tomorrow.
NASA GOES-EAST 200709251830z
TRACK is critical, as a weaker system will be more likely to pass west of 60W Longitude, why do we care? This appears to be the swing point on whether KAREN turns out to sea or gets caught up in the large high pressure that will be moving off the East Coast of the United States. If it gets caught up on the southern side of this high pressure we will see a shift in the forecast models towards the Unites States. The farther south KAREN makes it past 60W the greater the threat to the US.
INTENSITY is tough to forecast, although the rapid intensification numbers are down from yesterday, I see a more southerly route than most of the models are forecasting (KAREN is a large envelop storm system caught up in the tropical Easterlies) this suggests that KAREN could become a hurricane before weakening on Thursday thru Saturday. By Sunday, if she hasn’t been completely sheared off by the expected strong upper-level winds then another round of strengthening may begin late Sunday-Monday.
TD #13 HAS FORMED IN THE GULF, BUT…
No official word from the Hurricane Center. I do expect advisories to begin by 5pm.
UPDATE (6:30PM): HURRICANE CENTER HAS OFFICIALLY UPGRADED THE SYSTEM TO TD #13, if it continues to strengthern, and a large complex of thunderstorms have developed near the center, this will likely be upgraded to LORENZO sometime Wednseday.
NASA GOES-EAST 200709251845z (few thunderstorms)
INTENSIFICATION will be slower than discussed yesterday. As mentioned last night, the low-level decoupled from the mid-level, this means it will take about 24 more hours, to regain its structure once this happens strengthening will be continuous and a hurricane could form by Friday morning.
TRACK of this is tough, the weaker it remains the more likely it will never develop as it moves ashore Mexico, near Veracruz, by Thursday morning. Otherwise, a stronger system will be slow to move with a tendency towards the NORTH after Friday.
JG

GULF OF MEXICO and CENTRAL ATLANTIC
Posted by john gaughan at 9/24/2007 8:56 PM
THE RACE IS ON… WHO GETS CLASSIFIED FIRST…
Just as we have seen in a number of systems this year, the system in the Gulf of Mexico decoupled, that is to say, the low-level separated (moved SW) from the mid-level circulation. This effectively kills off thunderstorm activity making the system appear weak, but it is a momentary lack of organization. I expect thunderstorms to redevelop overnight and during the morning hours tomorrow.
NASA GOES-EAST 2007250130z (note lack of storms, orange-red colors)
In the meanwhile, in the Central Atlantic, designated 96L, will be the next classified system, so the Atlantic system will be first to be named by the NHC.
The Gulf system will be another day away (Tuesday late?)…
JG …

AND ANOTHER THING!!!
Posted by john gaughan at 9/24/2007 11:56 AM
TIMING IS EVERYTHING – KAREN OR LORENZO
READ PRIOR BLOG TO UNDERSTAND WHAT KAREN IS ABOUT…
Out in the far Atlantic is this tropical depression, yes, this is currently a tropical depression, but not yet classified by the National Hurricane Center.
Nasa GOES-EAST 1545z
This “area of low pressure” is actually already TD 13, but we await official guidance, but in the meantime, my rapid intensification model would be flashing red, except it is so close to the equator. Located at 9.9n 33.3w, this will take an extra day to rapidly develop, but all indication are that this will be a hurricane by this weekend.
TRACK is easy, basically straight west for 3 days with a fade to the north thereafter…
JG …

IT MUST BE A MONDAY, JOHN IS RANTING!!!
Posted by john gaughan at 9/24/2007 11:26 AM
JOHN’S RANT ON NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER’S INCONSISTENCIES: SKIP TO THE BOTTOM TO HEAR ABOUT THE FORMATION OF KAREN!!!
FIRST AN OVER VIEW, STARTING LAST WEEK…
Hurricane Center either refused or were confused by the overall patterns and didn’t classify a clearly classifiable system until after it was in it’s dissipation stage. As a reader, you may or may not know, that storminess we experienced last week was not an identifiable system by the National Hurricane Center despite, a clear cut low to mid level low pressure that dumped excessive amounts of rainfall (10 plus inches) that caused sustained 40mph winds along the coast and winds offshore that gusted to 50mph and a series of tornadoes, that caused significant damage.
I believe they got too caught up in their models which developed a more serious low pressure in the Gulf right under an upper-level low, instead they lost focus on this, see picture below…That was an oops! Luckily, like Humberto, this system was too close to (or actually over land) land to develop more rapidly.
THEN THIS WEEKEND
A nearly identical situation out over the Atlantic, a sub-tropical low developed into, as they classified it at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), tropical storm Jerry.
Note the upper-level low and the lack of orange and red colors, these colors represent the more intense storms associated with tropical storms and hurricanes.
Nasa GOES-EAST, 200709240015z
Then this morning they (the NHC) downgraded Jerry, even though the thunderstorm activity has become more intense and concentrated. Yes, it maybe displaced, but this is common in high latitude systems. See picture below note the orange and reds, this is where the most intense storms are…
Nasa GOES-EAST, 200709241545z
Clearly, in this, before and after picture, Jerry is more intense now, not earlier. But, keep in mind, the NHC just downgraded Jerry to a depression…
NOW THIS MORNING WE GET THIS…
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1130 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ONRECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY…LOCATED ABOUT 945 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT…THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Here’s what they are talking about…

OOPS AGAIN!
This is a clearly classifiable system and I strongly believe, as FIVE of my rapid intensification parameters are suggesting that this will be hurricane KAREN within 2 days.
REMEMBER, I FIND IT EASIER TO PREDICT THE TROPICS THAN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, BUT…
At 5pm today, Monday, they should start advisories on Tropical Depression #12.
We shall see…
JG … Read More »

What A Subtropical Mess

WHAT A SUBTROPICAL MESS
Posted by john gaughan at 9/19/2007 9:54 AM

LIKE I SAID, WHAT A SUBTROPICAL MESS!
The surface low is East of Florida, the Upper-level low is Southwest of Florida and the highest winds are offshore Northeast Florida.
WHAT NEXT?
Dry air will swing in from the west and south of the surface low which will force much of the heavy (but fading) rain into Georgia, so the folks who have heard us talk about Jacksonville’s rain so much will now get 1/2″ to maybe 2″ over the next 2 days, especially along the coast East of I-95. The rains should shift into Georgia later tonight and Thursday.
WHAT ABOUT JAX?
Bands of QUICK downpours continue, there’s good news in this… They are quick downpours which are leaving only moderate amounts of rain (well under an 1″ per downpour). The bad news is that driving in these highly changeable conditions will be tough at times.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
Sometime tonight, as the rains offshore wrap around the upper-level low, this will be the time where the greatest potential of flooding rains MAY occur. Worst case scenario would suggest another 2-4″ of rain will move onshore during the next 18 hours (thru Thursday Morning). Then, the rains will become more showery (again) with quick passing downpours, where the heaviest amounts will be WELL WEST and NORTH of Jax, Georgia and Lake City thru the Panhandle.
AND THEN?
A surface low in the Gulf will develop, maybe late Thursday.
AND THEN?
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will start advisories on it… LOL.
AND THEN?
Our skies will be clearing, the winds will lessen and it will become sunny, warm and humid for the weekend with a few quick downpours
JG …

FIRST THE “TRAINING” RAINS AND NOW A SUB-TROPICAL LOW!
Posted by john gaughan at 9/18/2007 9:57 AM
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE RETURNING!
They just might not be over the same locations that were pounded yesterday. Then again, even if only half of what fell yesterday falls at any time over the next few days we again will see serious travel conditions/delays across the area. In many coastal communities (east of I-95), the ground is saturated and with another 3-5″ (very possible) over the next few days (thru Friday) this will cause problems.
SUB-TROPICAL LOW EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE
Motion is hard to detect, but I suspect it will be rather slow and may actually develop northward as some of the forecast models suggest. Whatever the case, because of the slow motion, extreme rainfall (isolated storm totals > 10″) will be pushed on shore, mainly South of St. Augustine to West Palm Beach.
There will be the possibility that this will be declared a sub-tropical depression by 5pm today. I know, I would, but I am never too sure what the NHC is thinking.
Development (intensification) will be like its motion, slow. Yet, wind near tropical storm strength will be along the coast from Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet the next 36 hours.
Longer range, this will develop into something tropical, and may impact the Gulf Coast communities in Texas and Louisiana by late this weekend.
Image from NASA-MSFCJG …

HEAVY SEASONAL RAINS HIT JACKSONVILLE
Posted by john gaughan at 9/17/2007 11:57 AM
SEPTEMBER IS THE RAINIEST MONTH
Now we all know why. The combination of very warm coastal waters (83-85) plus an old front and an upper-level trough all combine to give us days like these…
LOCALIZED EXTREME RAINFALL
Total Rainfall amounts will be 6-8″ for Duval County East of I-95 to Jax Beaches, including Ponte Vedra and Palm Valley, 2-5″ just North and South of the downtown, mainly East of I-95 in Nassau and St. Johns County.
Elsewhere a few amounts to an inch…
Here are the estimated rain totals thru 1pm
Stay off the roads, don’t drive through flooded roads…
JG
2007 – “SEVEN” A LUCKY NUMBER???
Posted by john gaughan at 9/14/2007 9:35 AM
OH SO LUCKY…
So far this year we have had not, one, but two of the most powerful hurricanes, category 5 hurricanes, make landfall into relatively remote areas. Dean into the Belize/Mexican border and Felix into the Nicaraguan/Honduras border. The death toll a relatively low number, about 300 between these two MONSTER hurricanes. Not just were these two of the most intense hurricanes at their time of landfall, but both of these storms underwent dramatic Rapid Intensification.
And now there was Humberto. But before going into the details, let me explain how most people die in hurricanes. They drown. This is why evacuations from low-lying and below sea-level (New Orleans) areas are essential for saving lives. The Ocean/Gulf/Sea literally rushes inland. But, to evacuate people from these areas it takes time. Here in Jacksonville, it is estimated that the LEAST amount of time, for a Category 3 hurricane, to get everyone off the beaches and low lying areas it would take 36 hours. Some estimates are as high as 72 hours!
The Texas/Louisiana coasts are no different.
Humberto’s central pressure (the measurement for rapid intensification) plunged from 1003 to 986mb in just 15 hours. This is where the story of Humberto being the fastest to go from a Tropical Depression to Hurricane comes from. In just the last hour, before making landfall, the pressure was dropping at the rate of 4 mb/hour. Which means Humberto would have become a category 3, a major hurricane, in just 6 more hours! And had it continued for another 12 hours, then Humberto would have become a category 4 hurricane!
Think about it, had Humberto been a little slower, say moved at 4mph instead of 7mph, in just 30 hours a catastrophic hurricane would have surged a 15 foot wall of water across a region that takes at least 36 hours to evacuate.
Furthermore, it would have been an evacuation that would have never happened, why?
First, it would have required evacuations to begin as soon as the National Hurricane Center declared that a tropical depression had formed. How many people do you think would have packed up and evacuated because a tropical depression had just formed? None!
Even after being declared a tropical storm, how many people would have evacuated? Maybe 5%???
By the time it became a hurricane, the point in which most people make the decision to evacuate, DARKNESS, heavy rains and long gas lines would have caught tens of thousands of motorists, jamming roads and creating even longer evacuation times. I seriously doubt if 50% of those who needed to evacuate would have been able to under this scenario, this would have left maybe 10,000 people (conservatively a very low number) in the direct path of the 15 foot wall of water known as the Storm Surge.
Now, had 90% of these people stuck, on the barrier islands, were able to make it to a secure building or higher ground (ground that would have still flooded up to their necks) it would have meant that 1,000 people along the Texas coastline would have drowned!
Absolutely scary. We were so lucky.

INGRID HAS FORMED

An environmental research flight was in the region and was able to determine late last night that TD #8 was actually a weak tropical storm.
This morning, still weak looking and likely to remain this way, but here’s how best to watch this one…
IF, Ingrid is able to remain fairly strong through the expected wind shear and low-level inflow issues (basically over the next 5 days) then we better watch out!
Why? Historically, those systems that survive the bad times tend to really blow-up when conditions do improve!
More later.
JG

Humberto, Ingrid and Gabrielle

HURRICANE HUMBERTO MOVES ASHORE, TD8 EXTREMELY WEAK Posted by john gaughan at 9/13/2007 7:44 AM HUMBERTO DEMONSTRATES WHY HURRICANES CAN BE SO DANGEROUS…

Courtesy NWS
In just 18 hours, a swirl of rainshowers intensified into a Hurricane with winds over 80mph and even higher gusts. This is what happens this time of year when the conditions are just right for rapid intensification. (I must pat my back a little bit here, as I was first to mention this system back on Monday and suggested the NHC should have started advisories on it on Tuesday Evening, you get lucky now and then…).
Luckily, Humberto was very close to shore when this happened and wasn’t able to intensify even more dramatically. Clearly, had Humberto had just another 18 hours, this storm would have had +100 mph winds and a serious storm surge that would have trapped tens of thousands along the coast.
18 HOURS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A CATEGORY 1 AND A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE, THE SCARY ASPECTS OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
If Humberto had the additional 18 hours to intensify (reasons: a slower track or developed just 120 miles southeast of where he did), he could have easily become a dangerous Category 3 hurricane. My guess is that the NHC might have been more aggressive with their forecasts, but that local officials and general public complacency among the residents would have had tens of thousands not heeding evacuation notices… Timing is everything and we were lucky with this one.MIGHT BE LUCKY WITH TD8 TOO!
Courtesy NRL
Looks very weak, as you can see on the visible satellite picture above, the low-level center is separated from the heavy convection (Storms). Clearly this system is very weak and will not be upgraded today… But, you knew that already, I have not been looking for this system to do much and is following the scenario I suggested yesterday, a track further South and a little faster than yesterday’s NHC forecast.
WHAT NEXT?
All I see are shearing winds and low-level inflow problems, only 2 of the 7 rapid intensification parameters I follow are suggesting any strengthening. I have seen tropical storms dissipate under these conditions in the past.
For now, we’ll watch this barely hang in there, I don’t see this becoming anything more than a weak Tropical Storm (unlikely) over the next 4 days…
JG
…

HUMBERTO HAS FORMED OFF OF TD #9
Posted by john gaughan at 9/12/2007 1:22 PM
WHETHER OR NOT THE NHC UPGRADES IS A MATTER OF ARGUMENT.
Clearly Radar pictures show a well developed tropical low with an array of Rainbands, winds if not at 40mph in gusts will be shortly. The National Hurricane Center should essentially upgrade this on any confirming winds from the latest Hurricane Hunter aircraft that will be reaching the system within the next hour (3:30pm).
I expect this to be named at 5pm.
Courtesy NWS

HUMBERTO AND INGRID ???
Posted by john gaughan at 9/12/2007 11:14 AM
TWO NEW SYSTEMS, EXACTLY AS WE DISCUSSED 2 DAYS AGO
The Atlantic system, TD #8. The system has slowly improved its look (organization and thunderstorm activity) yet, to me, it looks very delicate, especially since nearly all of the intensity models are hard pressed to maintain its strength over the next 5 days. This is quite a turn around, where as recently as yesterday morning, these same models were forecasting rapid intensification.
Courtesy NRL
What to expect? This system will move West-northwestward, south and faster than the current NHC forecast. Intensification, this is a tough call, to me the best chances are over the next 48 hours, then we shall see. Today’s forecast tip: Systems that move slowly, especially Northwest motion, over this part of the Atlantic remain very weak and never really develop.
MEANWHILE IN THE GULF
Even before the NHC started looking at this area, I mentioned (in the prior blog, 2 days ago) that it had a chance to develop before moving ashore, AND, there may be a reformation of the circulation that would allow for an extended stay over the Gulf, increasing its chances of developing. This is exactly what has happened.
Radar data and ship reports indicate that winds in some of the rainbands are over Tropical Storm strength, right now. Now, I find it harder to predict the NHC than the tropics, but I will forecast that the NHC will name TD9 as HUMBERTO this evening at 5pm. (LATE BREAKING UPDATE: Hurricane Hunters were hard pressed to find winds of TS strength, therefore may NOT be upgraded at 5pm).

Courtesy NWS, Houston Radar.
Slow movement towards the coast will allow for further strengthening, so max winds may peak around 60mph. The rainfall amounts are the greater concerned, especially from Houston to Louisana. Isolated 10″ rainfall amounts are very possible over the next 3 days.
JG

GABRIELLE GONE, NEXT 91L
Posted by john gaughan at 9/10/2007 8:59 AM
GABRIELLE HAS LOST HER CONVECTION
Her track over the Outbanks of NC zapped her strength much more than I thought it would, the NHC blames this on upper-level winds being too strong, their data being better than mine, I won’t argue this. Gabrielle is gone, heading out to sea. Maximum wind gust were 55-60 mph in the Cape Hatteras area, meanwhile up to 6″ of rain fell around Moorehead City / Atlantic Beach areas of North Carolina.
MEANWHILE 91L, THE NEXT SYSTEM?
Not likely, not right away… Even though the two principle Hurricane Forecast models (GFDL and HWRF) want to rapidly intensify this area of storms into a hurricane (see picture below), I still cannot identify a center of rotation, which means there really is nothing there… Just an area of storms along the ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone).

THEN THERE’S THIS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
Clearly there is a center of Low Pressure and thunderstorms East of Brownsville Texas. It is heading west at a fairly high speed which means it may move onshore Northeast Mexcio before fully intensifying. Yet, I see this as having a high probability of attaining at least Tropical Depression status by the NHC before Tuesday Evening (tomorrow).
Sometimes, developing storms in the Gulf of Mexico will reform their center which, in this case, might allow for more time over the Gulf and a much greater chance of developing into a Tropical Storm, before moving ashore in about 2 days.

MOOREHEAD CITY, NORTH CAROLINA
Posted by john gaughan at 9/9/2007 10:17 AM
GABRIELLE MOVES QUICKLY INTO NC OUTERBANKS
Courtesy NWS
Spending less time than I thought over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf Stream, maximum winds probably have peaked at around 50mph. However, as I mentioned yesterday, there is still a real possibility that Gabrielle could strengthen as she starts moving away from the North Carolina coast, possibly reaching minimal hurricane strength, before being sheared by strong upper-level winds starting Tuesday Morning.
RIGHT NOW, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
This satellite picture shows the PLUME of severe thunderstorms, just South of the center of circulation.
WHAT NEXT?
Gabrielle is almost a done deal, excessive rainfall will be confined to the North Carolina Outerbanks and the counties adjacent to the coast. Wind gusts may reach 60mph in a few squalls in and around Hatteras, Flooding will be minor, if at all…
THE REST OF THE TROPICS
Are looking more curious, especially in the Central Atlantic Ocean. More on this after it becomes clear that a single circulation center has formed, this could happen as early as tomorrow night / Tuesday Morning.
JG

Gaughan 9/4 – 9/8

AND LATE LAST NIGHT… THE NHC, UPGRADES…
Posted by john gaughan at 9/8/2007 10:25 AM
WHAT’S EASIER TO PREDICT? THE NHC OR THE TROPICS?
CLEARLY THE TROPICS…
SEEMINGLY, IN A MOVE OF LEAST/LAST REGRET, THE NHC UPGRADED THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE. AT 11PM AT NIGHT!
DID IT CHANGE STRENGTH? NO.
COULD THEY THEREFORE HAVE DONE THIS BEFORE THIS TIME? YES.
COULD THEY HAVE DECLARED THIS A SUB-TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY? WEDNESDAY? THURSDAY? FRIDAY AT 5PM? YES, YES, YES, AND YES…
Sure there were moments that made it appear that it had all but faded away, but if you recall this also happened to Andrew (Yes, I know, totally different circumstances), my point is that MOST forecast models predicted some strengthening, that upper-level conditions were only going to improve after Thursday and it would be moving towards the US over a weekend… Clearly, they should have done this earlier.
WHERE NEXT?
Gabrielle will be a well behaved storm in terms of TRACK, brushing past the Outerbanks and Cape Hatteras. See track models below. They all look TOO FAST. I would not be surprised if Gabrielle moved slowly across the Outerbanks.
STRENGTH?
My own intensity models are suggesting that Gabrielle will become a hurricane while making the turn, or just after making the turn to head out to sea. Upper-level winds are lessening and more importantly, warming. Gabrielle will track over the Gulf Stream, or near it for 3 days, so I see the current forecast models too weak, especially after Monday Morning. Hurricane is still a possibility.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS?
Broad low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, is not enough to initiate cyclone development and an area of low pressure has pressure is west of the Cape Verde Is., but an unusually strong UPPER-LEVEL low over the Atlantic Ocean will likely turn this Northward into the Atlantic.
JG …

IT’S FRIDAY MORNING AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK!
Posted by john gaughan at 9/7/2007 8:16 AM
CLEARLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL STRONG, BUT…
As mentioned yesterday, upper-level conditions would begin to improve by this morning, and as expected they have but, most importantly, they have begun to warm. This is allowing for Thunderstorms to develop right near the center of circulation. The center which now appears to have reformed North of the fading swirl from last night.
Courtesy NRL
NOW WHAT?
Here we go… Strengthening will be steady for the nest 3 days and it is still possible a Category 1 hurricane will be off the North Carolina coast over the weekend. Hurricane Center will probablystart advisories by 5pm on Tropical Depression #7.
TRACK IS CLEAR
Slow west for about 48 hours, then the hard North turn towards the Outerbanks. More details after the center has been established for? Yep… 36 hours…
THE REST OF THE TROPICS
Remain unusually quiet…
JG

GOING ONCE, GOING TWICE, GONE !!!
Posted by john gaughan at 9/6/2007 7:51 AM
HURRICANE HUNTERS ONE DAY, GONE THE NEXT MORNING!
Been burned in the past on these types of systems, which is why I always hold off on making very specific forecasts unless there is a BONA FIDE system for at least 36 hours.
This morning visible satellite pictures confirm what I mentioned on-air last night, that this system has weakened to the point now it has all but faded away…
WHAT NEXT?
The clock is ticking, upper-level winds will become HIGHLY FAVORABLE for development in about 2 days, so, IF, and it’s a big IF, the system can hold even a small reflection of itself, then we should start to see thunderstorms redevelop starting by Friday Morning.
AND BY-THE-WAY, THESE FORECAST MODELS
These tracks, are now very doubtful, as I can already see that whatever ghost of a low pressure that remains is much further south and west of where these models start their forecasts. I could make a weak argument that the low is centered, this morning at 28.4N 69.5W
JG …

SQUASHED BUG ?!?!?
Posted by john gaughan at 9/5/2007 9:12 AM
“SQUASHED BUG” IS ALSO A METEOROLOGICAL TERM…
That forecasters use when a number of forecast models have TOTALLY differing answers to basically the same question…
Here’s the picture:
The picture above, looks like a BUG with its LEGS squashed upward (North).
Actually, what you are looking at are the possible solutions that a variety of forecast models are suggesting (as of this morning) of what the possible track, of the yet-to-be-named low pressure, east of Jax, will be… whew! That’s a whole lot of uncertainty!
And uncertainty is exactly what the phrase “squashed bug” means.
From my experience, what we will see is that for the next 24 hours each time the forecast models are updated (every six hours) we will start to see a trend in the way the “squashed bug” appears… In other words, the models will begin to agree.
My own work tells me, no accurate forecast can be made until a bona fied system has been around for at least 36 hours, and that this system is still 3-5 days away from reaching the United States, if ever…
So… We wait…
INTENSIFICATION
As mentioned yesterday, WINDSHEAR (strong winds at high altitudes, in this case, around 40,000 feet) would be present until… Tomorrow (Thursday) Morning. Nothing changed, this mornings early visible satellite pictures show a sheared system, where all of the thunderstorms are separated from the surface low pressure.
TIME LINE EXACTLY AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY
Later today, the NHC will likely, not guaranteed, start advisories on Sub-tropical 7, by late tomorrow, the system will be upgraded to weak Tropical Storm Gabrielle and slow, but steady intensification will occur right through the weekend as the system moves slowly…
JG …

NEW SEASONAL FORECAST IS OUT…
Posted by john gaughan at 9/4/2007 10:09 AM
DR. KLOTZBACH IS NOW THE LEAD FORECASTER
Dr. Gray is now devoting his time to the Global Warming Questions. Dr. Klotzbach (pronounced like “Spock”) has reduced the forecasted Seasonal Total to 15. Not nearly as much of a reduction I thought, but the techniques they use have all of the current data. Dr. Klotzbach is still aggressively looking for 9 more storms (actually 10, but Felix wasn’t around when the calculations were made). With 4 more storms expected this month, September, and 5 more storms for October/November.
Remainder of the season (Felix already accounted for):
9 more Named Storms, 5 of the 9 will become hurricanes and of the 5 hurricanes, 2 will be Major (Category 3,4 and 5) Hurricanes.
In other words, we still have what would be a “normal” season to go!!!SPEAKING OF WHICH, THE LOW EAST OF JAX
Is undergoing significant shear and therefore is NOT going to intensify much over the next 2 days, not until after Thursday Morning. However, the media hype maybe about to begin as… Even though winds are no greater than 25 mph right now, over the next 2 days, winds may increase to 40mph (hardly anything) and that would place a NAMED storm system just off the Florida Coast. So… Expect a lot of coverage once this happens.
MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN:
Wednesday, 5pm, NHC starts advisories on either tropical or sub-tropical Depression 7.
Thursday,5PM, NHC classifies it as a Tropical Storm Gabrielle.
Saturday – Sunday Gabrielle intensifies into a Hurricane.
MY EXPECTATIONS ON TRACK
Are impossible to make until an actual center has been established for at least 36 hours. The techniques I use are nearly 3 times more accurate after a center has been established for at least 36 hours, the longer it has been established the more accurate.
My gut is saying that this will loop around and then turn briskly to the North, just off the North Carolina Outerbanks.
INTENSITY FORECAST
All of the techniques I use strongly suggest a VERY SLOW increase over the nest 3 days, after that, a more rapid intensification will occur, but nothing like Felix or Dean.
JG

Hurricane Felix

FELIX MAKING LANDFALL IN NE NICARAGUA
Posted by john gaughan at 9/4/2007 7:43 AM
2007 – LUCKIEST HURRICANE YEAR, EVER ???
Felix and Dean, two Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in the same year, first time ever! The best part is that they both went into remote areas, away from population centers. Yes, they both caused serious damage where they came ashore, especially for the local economy and crops, but to have two Category 5 hurricanes hit land in the same year without extreme loss of life… It truly has been (so far) a very lucky year in the tropics. Note: Hurricane Mitch, a category 5 hurricane, but weakening as it was coming ahore Honduras, killed +10,000.
FELIX AS FORECASTED LAST WEEK
Felix had a similar overall track to that of Dean, just south of Dean’s track. Like Dean, Felix did become a Category 5 Major Hurricane. I must tell you though, I suspect that this may be reduced to a Category 4 (after the season is reviewed) as the lowest pressure in FELIX was a little too high for a true Category 5 hurricane.
TROPICS ARE AGAIN QUIET…
Area of low pressure off the Florida East Coast looks sheared, with terrible upper-level winds (Dry – Northwest winds) for development, but it is September and we don’t discount anything.
EVEN IF IT DEVELOPS…
Nearly all of the current models take this one out to sea. And at the moment I can’t argue with them.
SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST UPDATE:
Will be released this morning, I am expecting a significant reduction in their earlier forecast of 16 for the entire season. Down to just 13, reasons are clear, the African Monsoon has been absent this year, so there have been few tropical disturbances starting out in the far eastern Atlantic. Of course, this is just my opinion, we shall know soon.
JG

UNPREDICTABLE FELIX ??? AND BTW, FELIX IS A MAJOR HURRICANE…
Posted by john gaughan at 9/2/2007 12:07 PM
HATE TO SLAM THE LOCAL OFFICIALS IN CURACAO, YET THESE TYPE OF COMMENTS ARE IRRESPONSIBLE:
“Felix was changing directions constantly after nightfall and wobbling, making the storm’s impact hard to predict, Curacao Lt. Gov. Lizanne Richards-Dindial said at a midnight news conference. “Felix is playing with us,” she said.
Comments like these can cause widespread panic, if you are a local official, this is exactly what you shouldn’t say…
Of course, the Holiday-Weekend (not-so-experienced) staff at the AP read into this that Felix was hard to predict.
Not true. Felix like Dean will (at least for the next 3 days) be very easy to predict. They then added this graphic which has a track looking line that seems to show FELIX going all over the place, towards Texas and then Florida, another irresponsible move (see below), whatever…
TRACK FORECAST
Remains basically unchanged from what it was two days ago, a track towards the Nicaraguan – Honduras border, if just North of this track, by 50 miles, then another direct hit into the Belize-Mexican border, nearly identical to that of DEAN.
INTENSITY, FELIX IS A MAJOR HURRICANE, RIGHT NOW
See picture below, looks cat 3. to me, my estimates are that Hurricane Hunters will find a 955mb hurricane, easily Cat. 3., there is now a 50-50 chance of FELIX going Cat. 5, sometime Tuesday Morning.
ELSEWHERE
The interesting story is NOT 98L, a swirl in the Atlantic, which has NO CHANCE of developing for at least 3 days, and only if it survives that long… Very doubtful…
Is an area of low pressure of the coast of Charleston SC. It appears to be moving East and organizing, if Thunderstorms continue for another 24 hours, likely, then Hurricane Hunters may be asked to check it out on Tuesday. Expected motion will be slowly Eastward, more later…
See Headline Graphic, Felix is going everywhere!?!?Courtesy NRL

HURRICANE FELIX, SOON TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
Posted by john gaughan at 9/1/2007 6:48 PM
FELIX IS AGAIN WITHIN HOURS OF REACHING ANOTHER MILESTONE
Hurricane Hunters have found winds to 75mph and a central pressure that is rapidly falling all suggesting that FELIX will be declared a Hurricane by the NHC very soon.
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COAST, AN OMINOUS SIGN
We are again faced with the high probability of a rapidly intensifying Hurricane. Cat 3? Cat 4? Cat 5? All possible as another parameter in my Rapid Intensification Model flashed when the SOUTHERN half of the storm showed strong inflow, despite the air was coming from over land.
Once past 72W, FELIX should reach category 4 strength before making landfall.
TRACK
Models are north of where I suspect that Felix will track, but we are now into September and the HARD WESTERLY tracks that hurricanes take in August quickly abate, therefore a track into the YUCATAN is much more likely.
AFTER THAT?
The Gulf or follow Dean’s trail of destruction? Either way, FELIX is a smaller storm and as such the impact will be less than Dean. In fact, the best track would be for FELIX to track along DEAN’S track… Hard to knock down the same tree twice…
Seasonal Forecast updates coming soon…
JG …

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #6. – FELIX (very soon)
Posted by john gaughan at 8/31/2007 7:35 PM
FELIX JUST HOURS AWAY?
Satellite pictures are suggesting increased strength and especially organization, recon is also reporting very close to Tropical Strom Force Winds… So, call it Felix on the 11pm advisory.
TRACK
I still see a slightly further South track for FELIX, relative to what the NHC is suggesting. Nicaragua/Honduras.
STRENGTH
intensity should hold at Tropical Storm strength until around 70-75W, then Rapid Intensification should occur. If, FELIX can slowly intensify along the Northern Coast of Venezuela, then he will easily become the seasons second Major Hurricane. …

FROM A TRIO TO JUST ONE
Posted by john gaughan at 8/31/2007 11:03 AM
HURRICANE HUNTERS MAY FIND…
What is believed to be TD #6. There is actually a better than 50-50 chance we will see Felix named this afternoon, see the picture below. This remote sensing product (Remote Sensing is generally used to describe from a distance, in this case from a satellite some 22, 500 miles away) shows estimated wind speeds, wind barbs, that are colorized, orange-red suggests that sustained winds are around 30-35kts, almost tropical storm strength.
Courtesy, NRL
What it also shows, is that the winds may not be entirely circulating around. This suggests, at the time this image was created, 8AM this morning, that despite the winds nearly at Tropical Storm strength, it is actually nothing more than a strong tropical wave.
So, get your quarters out and start flipping, on whether we have just a Tropical Wave or Tropical Depression 6 or Tropical Storm Felix. NHC will likely make a statement around 2pm today.
I will pick Tropical Wave status… Looks too broad and streched out on the visible satellite.
TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT
Based upon a current position guess of 11.5N and 57.5W. The track of this system will be to skirt right along the South American Coast, then off to Nicaragua.
Strengthening will be very limited until passing the North Coast of Venezula, then around 75W it will have time to quickly intensify into a Hurricane before moving ashore Nicaragua, in about 5 days (Wednesday, 9/5/07).
So, my forecast, remaining at about its current strength through Sunday, then rapid intensification to Category 2 strength as it moves ashore Nicaragua on Wednesday.
THE REST OF THE TROPICS
Are again quiet, despite the little sub-tropical low east of NJ and the clouds in the Bay of Campache and the Hurricane looking swirl around 40N40W (See picture below).
JG

NEED YOUR HELP! IN REPORTING AMOUNTS! COCORAHS!

NEED YOUR HELP! IN REPORTING AMOUNTS! COCORAHS!
Posted by john gaughan at 10/8/2007 3:57 PM

After the 2 to 2 1/2 feet of rain that fell across the area, it is so important for rain amounts to be collected so that emergeny responders can help out those that need it most. Yes, the National Weather Service (NWS) can use radar technology to get an ESTIMATE, but as we saw with the recent rains, their estimate was less than what was actually observed.
That is why it is so necessary to have a field observation, or in this case, a backyard observation…
If you have a raingauge, they are relatively cheap and found at most hardware stores, you can help the reporting of rainfall and other conditions by joining up with this group…
COCORAHS – Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network, http://www.cocorahs.org/
And don’t forget to e-mail us too! You can always e-mail me at weather4jax@yahoo.com or john@wjxt.com
JG …

YIPPEEE!!!! THE SUN IS BACK AND FEELS GREAT!
Posted by john gaughan at 10/8/2007 2:50 PM
2 DAYS IN A ROW!!!
Sunshine returned on Sunday, Jags won too! Today actually felt nice, and hot…
HOT AND HUMID
The next couple of days will be more Summer-like than Fall-like.
SO, AFTER 30 INCHES OF RAIN, IT IS OVER???
YES!
Back to a more normal pattern from here… October, especially after the first week, starts a climatological period that is our driest of the year. Yes, it still rains, but only once in a while, and more typically, all at once with the rest of the days dry, pleasantly warm in the afternoon and cooler, yet mild nights (60’s).
Tomorrow, we will talk tropics (what happen to the Low over Cuba) and tally up the final rainfall totals…
JG …

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING OVER CUBA
Posted by john gaughan at 10/5/2007 8:54 PM
SATELLITE AND RADAR

Are showing significant increase in organization of the area of Low Pressure George and I showed on-air during the early evening newscasts. Here’s a radar image out of Key West.

The area will move SOUTHWESTWARD across Cuba tonight. Here’s the problem, the waters south of Cuba are well known to be some of the hottest in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. What I believe this means is that a tropical depression will form overnight or during the day tomorrow. If this happens, it could RAPIDLY INTENSIFY into a hurricane by Sunday Night or Monday.
However, my research suggests that the SW motion is a negative for tropical storm development, therefore the next 24 hours are critical for the systems survival. The rule here is that, commonly, tropical systems that travel SW weaken with time.
BUT… If they intensify, then WATCHOUT for Rapid Intensification! Recent example is Katrina, which traveled SW over Florida.
More later on this…
UNTIL THE PATTERN BREAKS
I am expecting more LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS. And, yet, more sunshine tomorrow. Today was a completely cloudy/dreary day even if you didn’t get heavy rains. Tomorrow and Sunday we should, at the minimum, see a couple of hours of sunshine each day.
JG30″ OF RAIN !!!
Posted by john gaughan at 10/5/2007 3:22 PM
SHOCKING PLUS 30 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PAST 3 WEEKS!
PAST 18 DAYS
30.50″ PONTE VEDRA BEACH (SINCE SEPT. 1ST)
27.27″ MANDARIN
26.25″ FRUIT COVE / JULINGTON CREEK
23.06″ BEAUCLERC
22.62″ JAX BEACH
25.30″ PALM VALLEY
17.67″ NORMANDY (I-10/295)
17.53″ ST. AUGUSTINE
16.88″ CIMARRONE (I-95/SR 210)
16.24″ ARLINGTON – CRAIG FIELD
10.73″ JAX NAVAL AIR STATION
7.59″ JAX INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
AND COUNTING!
TODAY’S TALLY INCLUDES:
Ponte Vedra/Palm Valley 3.35in
Brierwood/Mandarin 2.67 inMandarin/Losco Road 2.46 inMandarin 2.39 inJacksonville Craig 2.29 inUNF/San Pablo 2.16 inMandarin 1.95 inLeeward Landing, 1.63 inMayport NS 1.59 inMandarin/Julington Ck. 1.24 inJacksonville NAS 1.03 inLakewood/San Marco 0.76 inLakshore 0.76 inNormandy Heights 0.67 inNorth St Augustine 0.67 inLittle Marsh Island 0.64 inUF Campus 0.64 inSouth Hampton 0.59 inNormandy/Fouraker 0.43 inNorth Creek 0.20 inFruit Cove 0.20 inCompiled by George Winterling, thru 2:30pm.
SPEAKING OF GEORGE, CHECK OUT HIS BLOG TOO!http://www.news4jax.com/weather/14278177/detail.html

FWIW, ONLY SAW TODAY’S RAINS AFTER THE BEGAN TO DEVELOP, SEE MORNING UPDATE… THIS EVENING, RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, BUT DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS, NO CHANCE OF SUN, SEE SATELLITE PICTURE BELOW…JG

HERE WE GO AGAIN!
Posted by john gaughan at 10/5/2007 9:25 AM
HEAVY RAINS JUST OFFSHORE AS NOR’EASTER RE-BUILDS

It will again all be about location, as easterly winds have created bands of rains that will cut across the area today. Depending on whether you are under the worst of the rains or not, you may see 2-3″ of rain (maximum) or just hear the thunder rolling on by, with little rainfall. See picture below.
NWS Jax Radar, 20071005, 1011am
The good news is that since these rains are moving in during the late Morning hours we should clear, a little bit, during the late afternoon hours. So, we may actually get some sunshine in here by later today. In the meanwhile, try and stay dry…
Later we will talk tropics and Georgia Rainfall amounts…
JG …