Hurricane Season 8/20-8/30

SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECASTS ABOUT TO BE REDUCED?
Posted by john gaughan at 8/30/2007 9:13 AM
TRIO OF TROUBLE?!?!
Of the three we were watching the past few days, the one in the Bay of Campache, has the best chance of being named, but it is also running out of time as it will be moving ashore mainland Mexico, close to where Dean did a week ago.
The one east of Jax has faded away, as another, separate swirl has become more dominate, this one is even farther away from us. It is moving away from the U.S. and has minimumal characteristics to be declared a depression. I doubt the NHC will make much of this, unless it really intensifies.
And there are actually two systems over the tropical Atlantic, both have decent upper-level wind conditions to develop, but this is not 2005, as the lower atmosphere is very dry. Neither of these systems are likely to develop.
So, there you have it, despite a number of small systems, none really have what it takes, so… The U.S. is likely to stay threat free right on through the Labor Day weekend!
Next time, I’ll go over why I think the SEASONAL HURRICANE forecasts are about to be reduced… Yes, a quieter, but still active, season than first thought.
JG

TRIO OF TROUBLE???
Posted by john gaughan at 8/28/2007 6:45 PM
EAST OF CHARLESTON
Small spin and Thunderstorms suggests something is a brewing… My rapid development model suggests, there won’t be any, but a slow steady increase in intensity and slow drift to the Southeast suggests a Tropical Depression will form there sometime late Wednesday, or Thursday.
NEARING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
About where Dean went ashore, the NHC is watching this one closely and although close to, if not over, land, this could also develop into a tropical depression or storm. My Rapid Development Forecast model suggests a Tropical Storm will develop from this area of low pressure later Wednesday, or late Friday, depending on its location relative to land.
THEN THERE IS 94L, ANOTHER SPIN IN THE ATLANTIC
Way out to sea, near 15N 45W, we will watch this closely as my Rapid Development Model is suggesting upper-level wind conditions will be outstanding from now until Saturday. If you had seen earlier visible satellite pictures, you would have seen a very streched out (west-to-east) system, these tend to slowly develop.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Very busy number of day’s ahead as we will likely have at least 2 named storms within the next 5 days and maybe as many as 3 depending on the tracks of these storms, including another noteworthy spin coming off the coast of Africa. …

Little things… Tropics quiet, for a while…
Posted by john gaughan at 8/25/2007 8:47 AM

HEAVY RAINS RETURNED TO FLORIDA
Central Florida saw some of their heaviest rainfall in weeks on Friday, more today, mostly thanks to the Tropical Swirl we have been discussing the past few days. It has since dissipated and moved towards North Florida.
FELIX ??? O.K. a Tropical Depression…
Already formed in the Atlantic? Every now and then we see high latitude systems (unusually far North) that form and are either ignored by the National Hurricane Center or re-classified after the season is over. About 400 miles East of the Maryland-Delaware Coast it is a clearly classifiable, fully tropical (defined by Thunderstorms around a center of Low Pressure) as seen on Satellite pictures
ADDITIONALLY
Another much larger Sub-Tropical storm system, that is currently spinning around West of the Azores (way, way out in the Atlantic) is likely to acquire Tropical characteristics over the next 4 days.
Neither system will impact the U.S.
OTHERWISE
The tropics look dead, for at least a week. Next update if they do classify either of the two systems I mentioned above, otherwise nothing until after the 1st of September.
JG

DEAN WAS THE 3rd MOST POWERFUL
Posted by john gaughan at 8/21/2007 2:02 PM

DEAN WAS THE 3rd MOST POWERFUL
Hurricane at the time of LANDFALL (Atlantic Hurricnae Basin), there have been 8 stronger hurricanes, winds were 165mph with gusts to 200mph.
DEAN WILL FADE AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
And move ashore south of Tampico, Mexico. No impact on the U.S.
GETTING A LOT E-MAILS ABOUT…
Ghosts in the Atlantic, as mentioned, repeatedly, the UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROPICAL WAVE east of Florida, will not develop anytime soon. Slight chance that it will develop, slowly, along or just west of Florida in 3-4 days, around the 25th.
FLORIDA, IN A DRY SPELL
Will see increased rainshowers/downpours as the weekend approaches.
JG

DEAN IS A 5 !!! What next?
Posted by john gaughan at 8/20/2007 6:08 PM

CANCUN RADAR LINK
http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm
DEAN IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
Hurricane Hunters will find this during their 8pm fix of the storm. The westerly track continues so, the Belize/Mexico border is most likely the are of impact with this very powerful storm. Then it’s off towards just SOUTH of Tampico, Mexico.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Nothing… Upper-Low is causing the flare-up of clouds Northeast of Puerto Rico. Hurricane forecasting 101, no development, not until the upper-low fills / fades or moves away. All of these conditions will happen but not for a while.
QUIET UNTIL…
After the 25th… Maybe longer…
JG

Hurricane Dean 8/12 – 8/17

HURRICANE DEAN
Posted by john gaughan at 8/17/2007 4:25 PM
2PM ADVISORY WILL STATE THAT DEAN IS SEASONS FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE
Winds are now 120mph. Pressure has dropped rapidly now at 957mb.
JG
From: John GaughanSent: Fri 8/17/2007 10:58 AMTo: Subject: RE: DEAN NOW SEASONS FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE ???
NOT YET CLASSIFIED A MAJOR HURRICANE
The 11AM advisory came out late, an indication that there was some debate on whether to classify DEAN as a major hurricane. So, again we will wait for the hurricane center’s 5pm advisory for clarification.
JG
From: John GaughanSent: Fri 8/17/2007 10:29 AMTo:
Subject: FW: DEAN NOW SEASONS FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE
PRESSURE DOWN TO 963MB
I would expect DEAN to be classified as a Major hurricane at 11AM.
JG

From: John GaughanSent: Fri 8/17/2007 10:10 AMTo: Subject: DEAN NOW SEASONS FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE
DEAN SEASONS FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE
Hurricane hunters just reported back that winds are now 115mph and the central pressure has fallen to 965mb. Actually this is ahead of schedule for true rapid intensification, which will begin as soon as the “eye” clears out (lots of clouds right now). So, only slight intensification for the next 12-24 hours, then the bottom will fall out.
Remember this is unofficial, but we should hear this in 11AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
BASED UPON THIS MORNING TRACK MODELS
The threat to the TX-LA coastline has increased, again all coastal areas there should prepare for a major hurricane sometime next week. With hopes, albeit diminished hopes, that DEAN weakens over the Yucatan Peninsula.
JG

From: John GaughanSent: Thu 8/16/2007 8:25 PMTo: Subject: RE: MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN ???
CATEGORY 5, JUST A MATTER OF TIME…
Probably after leaving Jamaica, Monday Evening? My Rapid Intensification Model has been sending alarms on this (Dean) since before it left the coast of Africa, see Sunday’s e-mail.
STAYING AHEAD OF THE CURVE
As mentioned, repeatedly, August hurricanes tend more westerly than at any other time of year. Anyone or computer model, thinking of recurvature of such an immense envelope of energy, just don’t understand what makes up MONSTER hurricanes. That is what DEAN will be… a MONSTER. But, having said that, there comes a time when they do re-curve (head North).
WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS, AFTER 3 DAYS, CATEGORY 3 OR GREATER STORMS
Start re-curving northward, so the key date on where DEAN’S final destination will be is Sunday Evening.
THE BIG QUESTION? MEXICO? TEXAS? LOUISIANA?
Texans need to be FULLY prepared for the real possibility of a CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE slamming their coast next week. This hurricane could easily be the most intense hurricane to hit TEXAS in decades, surpassing, RITA (2005), BRET (1999), ALICIA (1983) and ALLEN (1980).
Next update on SUNDAY.
I have attached a screen shot (picture) of one of the newer hurricane models forecast of DEAN for Sunday. Note the MIN PRESSURE. 887.84 hPA (Millibars), if correct, DEAN would be the second most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. Wilma was the most intense, 882MB.
JG

From: John GaughanSent: Wed 8/15/2007 7:09 PMTo: Subject: RE: MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN ???
DEAN IS SEASONS FIRST HURRICANE
Evening satellite pictures show a small “eye”. I am expecting the Hurricane Center to upgade at 11pm.
Following yesterday’s script, Dean is past the cool water around 40-45W and now should begin to expand (get larger) and intensify steadily the next 3 days. The big question will be at what strength will Dean max out? And where? Dean reminds me of IVAN, a small low latitude storm.
AUGUST STORMS TEND TO DO WHAT?
Go west, more than at anytime of year. Although I can still see a high probabilty of DEAN hitting the US, Mexico is a close second, not just across the Yucatan Peninsula, but near Tampico.
ERIN, what can I say… As expected…
JG

From: John GaughanSent: Tue 8/14/2007 7:11 PMTo:
Subject: MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN ??? (resend)
DEAN – Weakens? But, going to be Category 5? New York City or Houston? 80% chance of reaching the USA?
DEAN LOOKED MORE INTENSE YESTERDAY, AND SUNDAY AS WELL…
But the quickscat images from today still show winds of at least 40mph. What gives? Cooler than normal water temps between 40 to 45W, once Dean clears this area, Wednesday, slow, but very significant intensification should begin, if it doesn’t, something else (outside of normal intensity models) must be holding Dean back, with DUSTY air clearly seen on visible Satellite pictures North and East of Dean would most likely be the culprit.
THE SCARIEST PART OF DEAN – CATEGORY 5 ???
Are what the INTENSITY FORECASTS are predicting. More than one model is forecasting max wind strength at Category 5 strength. This is the main reason why I am following this storm. Rarely do all the ingredients for Rapid Intensification come together. Dean should experience this starting Late Wednesday through Sunday.
LONG RANGE MODELS – ARE A JOKE?
A fairly reliable model (GFS), yesterday, forecasted DEAN into New York City. Today, the same model was forecasting a landfall near Houston Texas. The reality is this will be a GULF OF MEXICO storm. Texas looks much more likely, although Northern Mexico wouldn’t be surprising. Remember, August storms tend westward more than any other month.
CRITICAL DAY FOR TRACK CHANGE – FRIDAY
Gulf of Mexico or East Coast? We should know by the end of Friday.
80% CHANCE OF U.S. LANDFALL
That is where I would leave it at… Although I am watching the Natural Gas Futures (Like gasoline, but Natural Gas terminals are strung throughout the Gulf of Mexico, a sharp increase in the price of Nat. Gas suggests a higher chance of hitting the USA.
NO TD5, YET…
It is just a matter of semantics at this point, a large oblong circulation will consolidate and quickly become Erin by Thursday AM. About the time the system moves on shore the TX-MEX border. Heavy rainfall may cause flooding in the mountainous regions Mexico and the Hill Country of Texas.
JG

From: John GaughanSent: Mon 8/13/2007 7:26 PMTo:
Subject: RE: MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN ?????
DOUBLE TROUBLE IN THE TROPICS
TD #4. is just hours away from being named DEAN, likely to by late Tuesday / early Wednesday. Forecast TRACK models have come around to my weakness in the sub-tropical ridge discussion from yesterday (Sunday). Problem is that it is AUGUST and there is a tendency for tropical cyclones to travel more westerly than at any other time of year. Which means the recurvature forecast by some of the models maybe a little premature, especially if TD4 stays weaker than expected. Currently, still anticipating a MAJOR HURRICANE, at sea, near 20n 60w in about 5days. Caveat: We saw a similar pattern with Debby and Florence last year, Sahara Dust kept these from intensifying, dust that is clearly seen on visible satellite pictures to the north and east of TD4.
MEANWHILE
This evening’s visible satellite pictures CLEARLY show a low level swirl on the extreme NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. With the inhibiting influence of the upper low in the mid-Gulf about to fade into an upper-high. I am expecting a TD5 announcement from the NHC on Tuesday. This will further strengthen and could easily become a weak hurricane (Category 1) by Friday morning as it approaches extreme southern Texas on Friday. A slower track would typically suggest much greater intensification, but having a large envelope of circulation means slower development of a central core and therefore “eye”. Expecting this to become no more than a strong Tropical Storm as it crosses the Gulf, westward towards NE Mexico.
BOTTOM LINE
By Thursday we should have two named storms, one in the Western Gulf, the other 1/2 way across the Atlantic.
JG

From: John GaughanSent: Sun 8/12/2007 11:17 AMTo: Subject: MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN ?????
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAY OUT IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
Is intensifying, moving west and is at least 5 days away from any land areas (Leeward Islands), Guadelupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, British Virgin Islands…
MY RAPID INTENSIFICATION MODEL
Is strongly suggesting that this will become Tropical Storm Dean by Tuesday Morning, Hurricane Dean by Wednesday Evening and MAJOR hurricane Dean by Friday Morning (Winds greater than 115 mph).
LONG RANGE TRACK
Although most models suggest a west track through the northern Caribbean Sea hitting Domican Republic next Sunday… A weakness in the sub-tropical ridge late Friday thru Sunday may allow for a track from Puerto Rico into the Southern Bahamas, possibly threatening Cuba and the Key’s by Monday -Tuesday next week.
Subject to change, and although all of the weather guys know of this, I thought I would give you a heads up to my rapid intensification model which is strongly suggesting that this will be a major hurricane.
JG