PLEASE, IF YOU LIVE AT THE BEACH OR HAVE FRIENDS/FAMILY WHO DO, MAKE SURE YOU/THEY REVIEW THE HURRICANE SURVIVAL GUIDE AS IF THEY MAY HAVE TO EVACUATE LATE THIS WEEK. Review the links below…
www.News4jax.com Hurricane Page http://www.news4jax.com/hurricane/index.html
Hurricane Survival Guide http://www.news4jax.com/download/2010/0520/23623563.pdf
George’s Blog http://jacksonville.justweather.com/local/blog/winterling/
and don’t forget, click on the Facebook image…
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST:
THE GOOD NEWS MOST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST: Another Floyd (1999)
Many of the forecast models are strongly hinting of a track like hurricane Floyd took, just offshore of Florida, not impacting the state, at all.
Click to enlarge...
The key to these models tracking Irene like Floyd, appears to be the northern track they start and continue on…
So, we should know fairly soon whether these forecast models are correct. My theory is that medium to large tropical cyclones tend to be well behaved systems and therefore “re-curve” with grace. They don’t zig-zag across the map…
Given what we know this morning, the “key” appears to be 75 West longitude and 22 North latitude. All of the models that take Irene away from Florida (and into the Carolina’s) track Irene North of 22 north latitude at 75 west longitude.
Click to enlarge....
When will this happen? Wednesday Morning…
WHAT’S AT RISK??? Why worry?
Well, a couple of OBVIOUS things, first Irene is not going to be just another hurricane, she will likely be of the size of Floyd which means if she rides the coast just 50 miles closer than Floyd, we would actually get rainbands with winds of tropical storm strength for the beaches, much lesser inland.
Then there is the possibility the turn is slower and closer to this forecast model, the HWRF3km…
That’s a Category 3 hurricane just of Jax Beach. Stay tuned…
Posted by gaughanbloggin 
)
